The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the NBA Playoffs as favorites to win the Western Conference once again, but their path to the NBA Finals will likely be far more complicated this year than it was last year.
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The emergence of Victor Wembanyama and the 62-win San Antonio Spurs certainly adds a wrinkle in the West. Mitch Johnson’s group has the perfect combination of youthful exuberance thanks to young stars in Wemby, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper and veteran experience in De’Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson. In the East, the hard-nosed Detroit Pistons also emerged as a 60-win team thanks to an MVP-caliber season from Cade Cunningham and the rise of star center Jalen Duren. And of course, the Boston Celtics have to be considered a reasonable threat to win the title after Jayson Tatum’s timely return.
The Western Conference could also get a bit tricky for Oklahoma City aside from the Spurs in the right scenario. We’ve seen Nikola Jokić go absolutely nuclear to lead the Denver Nuggets to a title already in 2023 and he’s arguably playing even better basketball than he was entering that postseason. The Los Angeles Lakers just need to stay afloat for a few games until they get Luka Dončić and possibly Austin Reaves back, which would make them a potentially interesting foil out West.
Who’s The Top Threat?
Out of all the potential threats to Oklahoma City in these NBA Playoffs, the Spurs stand head and shoulders over the other contenders as the most viable. The version of Victor Wembanyama that we saw take over the league down the stretch is, simply put, one of the most ridiculous athletes in history. In this form, you could put four janitors alongside him in the starting lineup and the Spurs would still be intimidating. The problem for the Thunder is that the cast of characters surrounding Wembanyama isn’t made up of janitors, but rather a handful of current, future and past All-Stars that compares favorably to an Oklahoma City roster that was at one point in discussions alongside the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors for some odd reason.
WEMBY’S PLAYOFF DEBUT WAS HISTORIC
35 PTS
5 THREES
2 BLK
GAME 1 WIN
He sets the Spurs franchise record for MOST PTS in a playoff debut AND becomes the ONLY player in NBA history with at least 35 PTS & 5 3PM in a playoff debut! pic.twitter.com/uHBFmQyN6k
— NBA (@NBA) April 20, 2026
In terms of matchups, Detroit’s physicality could also pose an interesting challenge for a Thunder team that does have a reputation for being a bit soft. Like the 2004 Pistons did to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals, it isn’t hard to imagine a universe where the 2026 Pistons scrap their way to the title by driving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder outside of their comfort zone. Before we get into any hypotheticals about that, however, the Pistons need to worry about making it out of the first round after going down 0-1 to the Orlando Magic with a surprising loss on Sunday.
Any Other Potential Foils?
If Detroit doesn’t emerge out of the East, it’s certainly reasonable to expect that Boston will. The Celtics already looked like a championship caliber team before Tatum’s return thanks to Jaylen Brown’s career year, and they’ve only looked more dangerous and more complete since re-adding their franchise player to the fold alongside a guy in Brown who showed this season that the Celtics really have two franchise players on essentially equal standing. Plus, it’s foolish to count out any Joe Mazzulla led team in the NBA Playoffs considering the energy and focus he pours into the task at hand and what his players give him in return.
It’s also foolish to count out any team with Jokić on it, but I wouldn’t go as far as saying I give the Nuggets any real chance in a potential meeting with this version of Oklahoma City. If the Lakers survive Houston, it will be interesting to see what kind of momentum the team will be able to accrue moving forward, but the reality in Los Angeles is much the same as it is in Denver in the sense that the pieces surrounding the core are likely just not comparable to the Thunder or even the Spurs.
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