With six consecutive victories propelling them to a 7-2 record, the Patriots have transformed from AFC afterthoughts into legitimate playoff contenders under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. Now they face their toughest test yet, traveling to Tampa to battle a 6-2 Buccaneers squad that presents a different level of competition than the Patriots have encountered during their remarkable surge.
Despite being 2.5-point underdogs on the road, this matchup represents a critical measuring stick for a Patriots team that critics claim has benefited from one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. The Buccaneers, coming off their bye week and ranking seventh in EPA per play defensively while generating pressure at elite rates, will provide the kind of challenge that defines legitimate contenders.
Here are three bold predictions for how this pivotal Week 10 clash will unfold in Tampa Bay.
Drake Maye Will Rush for Over 60 Yards and Score His Third Rushing Touchdown
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Drake Maye’s dual-threat ability has become the engine driving New England’s resurgence, and Sunday’s matchup sets up perfectly for the rookie quarterback to showcase his legs in a career-defining performance.
Maye has already accumulated 270 rushing yards through nine games while averaging an extraordinary 4.6 yards per attempt. What makes these numbers even more impressive is that Fantasy Points Data charted 97 percent of his rushing yardage as scrambles rather than designed runs. His 7.8 yards per carry on scrambles represents the best rate by any quarterback with a minimum of 30 rushes since Michael Vick in 2000.
Tampa Bay’s defense, while improved in generating pressure with Haason Reddick leading the way, has shown vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays. The Buccaneers rank 24th in rushing yards allowed per game at 92.6 yards, giving up 3.9 yards per carry. When facing a quarterback with Maye’s athleticism and ability to pick up chunk yardage on broken plays, that defensive weakness becomes magnified.
Maye has already demonstrated explosive rushing performances this season, including a 62-yard effort against Tennessee and a 50-yard outing versus Cleveland. With the Patriots potentially missing running back Rhamondre Stevenson again due to a toe injury, Maye’s legs become even more critical to moving the chains. Expect Vrabel to incorporate more designed quarterback runs to exploit Tampa Bay’s rushing defense, pushing Maye past 60 yards and into the end zone for his third rushing touchdown of the season.
The Patriots Defense Will Hold Baker Mayfield Under 200 Passing Yards
New England’s defense has been the unsung hero of this six-game winning streak, and they’ll make a statement by containing veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield in what could be his lowest output of the season.
Marcus Jones attacks off the edge and sacks Spencer Rattler on third down!
The #Patriots need to extend Jones — he is having an amazing season.pic.twitter.com/I8BCy1IhNk
— Carlos A. Lopez (@LosTalksPats) October 12, 2025
The Patriots enter Week 10 allowing just 18.8 points per game, ranking sixth in the NFL. More impressively, they remain the only team in 2025 that hasn’t surrendered 50 rushing yards to a single running back through nine games—the first time in franchise history this has occurred. This dominant run defense forces opposing offenses to become one-dimensional, a scenario that plays directly into New England’s strengths.
Mayfield has been solid but unspectacular in 2025, completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,919 yards with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. However, his recent performances reveal concerning trends. In Tampa Bay’s last two games, Mayfield threw for just 152 yards against New Orleans and 228 yards in a loss to Detroit, completing only 56 percent of his attempts in that defeat. With Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving both missing practice Wednesday and unlikely to play, the Buccaneers’ offensive weapons are severely depleted.
The Patriots’ secondary, potentially getting back cornerback Christian Gonzalez from concussion protocol, will face a Tampa Bay receiving corps relying heavily on Emeka Egbuka, Sterling Shepard, and Tez Johnson. Without the injured Mike Evans and likely without Godwin, Mayfield loses his two most reliable targets. New England’s defense has thrived in third-down situations, converting stops at critical moments and forcing opposing quarterbacks into uncomfortable situations. Expect the Patriots to generate consistent pressure, limit explosive plays, and hold Mayfield to his lowest passing yardage total of 2025.
New England Will Win a Low-Scoring Battle, 20-17, Extending Their Streak to Seven
This game has all the makings of a defensive slugfest, and the Patriots will find a way to escape Tampa with a narrow victory that validates their playoff credentials.
Both teams enter this matchup dealing with significant offensive injuries that will limit scoring opportunities. The Patriots are without their leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson, receiver Kayshon Boutte remains questionable with a hamstring injury, and center Garrett Bradbury has dealt with hip issues. Tampa Bay counters with an even longer injury list, missing Mike Evans, likely Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and potentially Haason Reddick on defense.
The game total is set at 48.5 points, but the depleted offensive rosters and strong defensive units suggest a much lower-scoring affair. New England has won four consecutive games by single digits, demonstrating their ability to execute in tight, pressure-packed situations. Vrabel’s experience in these moments gives the Patriots an edge in the fourth quarter when games are decided by inches and seconds.
The Patriots will lean heavily on Drake Maye’s playmaking ability, Hunter Henry’s reliable hands in crucial situations, and a defense that continues to confound opponents with its discipline and execution. Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles will bring creative pressure packages, but Maye’s mobility and quick decision-making will neutralize the Buccaneers’ pass rush just enough to move the chains when it matters most.
Expect a tightly contested battle where field position and turnovers dictate the outcome. The Patriots will manufacture just enough offense through Maye’s legs and timely throws to DeMario Douglas and Stefon Diggs, while their defense forces a critical turnover in the fourth quarter. When the clock hits zero, New England will walk out of Tampa with a 20-17 victory, extending their winning streak to seven games and announcing to the NFL world that they’re not just surviving an easy schedule—they’re legitimate contenders capable of winning tough road games against quality opponents.
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