NCAA: What Happened To Cinderella?

Oh, Cinderella. Where did you go?

A second straight First Round largely composed of chalk has alarm bells ringing all over the internet, as every sportswriter, pundit and fan has seemingly chimed in with their own iteration of a tweet declaring that Cinderella stories in college basketball are dead at the hands of NIL and unlimited transfers. On the surface, it’s hard to argue.

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Time To Panic?

Only four double-digit seeds advanced to the Second Round, the fewest since 2007. For the second straight season, the highest seeded team to advance past the First Round was a 12. On Friday, favorites went 16-0 and for the first time since 1992, a First Round slate of games in the NCAA Tournament came and went without a single double-digit seed stealing a victory. Oh, and 13 of 32 first round games were decided by 20+ points.

Favorites went 16-0 yesterday.

This year’s first round had 13 of 32 games decided by 20+ points.

High Point only true mid-major still alive, and its NIL is probably most of any team in 1-bid league.

I hate to admit it, but due to NIL & transfer portal, Cinderellas may be dead.

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 21, 2026

For the casual hoops audience that tunes in strictly for March Madness (which, in fairness, is a large percentage), the last two tournaments have been an unconvincing product. I get that. Even mid-major sickos like myself have had to reconcile with the fact that the last two years are certainly a cause for concern for the future of the dance. But I would also caution everyone against giving up too quickly.

As decisive as the numbers may suggest the First Round was, the idea that none of the little guys had a chance this year is misleading. No. 16 seed Siena, playing with just five usable players, had the entire country captivated for two hours as it took an all-time great Duke team to the 12th round. No. 15 seed Furman had UConn on the ropes for much of the game, and No. 14 seed Wright State led against Virginia with less than five minutes remaining. Another No. 14 seed, Kennesaw State, gave Gonzaga all it could handle, and No. 13 seed Hofstra gave Alabama a legitimate scare. If even one or two of those games goes the opposite direction, we’re having a completely different conversation this weekend.

How Did We Get Here?

Another underrated culprit I’ve seen mentioned a few times, aside from NIL and rapid player movement, is the presence of NET, RPI, KenPom and all of the other advanced metric ratings that have made it so teams are seeded as much on how they look on paper as they are on what they actually did during their season in many cases. Not only that, teams simply rely on analytics more in recent years and play smarter basketball in these volatile situations than they did even five years ago.

Another huge undiscussed factor for the decline in the number of March seeding upsets is the committee now knows how to seed. They have data that works and pay attention to it, instead of antiquated RPI nonsense where they constantly made mistakes.

— Michael DeCourcy (@tsnmike) March 21, 2026

Is there truly a cause to be worried? I’m not going to be dismissive and say there isn’t. Two consecutive tournaments that have provided little to interest the casual American fanbase isn’t something to be flippant over, and I’m not even saying that disingenuously. And it’s true, the newfound era of transfer portal freedom is a major driving force behind it all, although I’m reluctant to place the same amount of blame on the concept of NIL entirely.

I also think it’s a bit more complicated than that. The truth is, college basketball fans have been spoiled with upsets in March Madness throughout the decade and a half to a disproportionate degree. Of the 13 times in NCAA Tournament history that a No. 15 or No. 16 seed have pulled off a First Round upset, nine have occurred since 2012. Since 2021, more No. 15 and No. 16 seeds have won games than the entire history of the NCAA Tournament pre-1997. So, does the new era of player empowerment play a role? Sure. But part of it is just the cookie crumbling the other way after an unprecedented stretch in college basketball history.

The counterpoint is we’re leaving the most upset rich era of CBB history, and the tourney right now is closer to what it was in 2010 than it was in 2022.

-12 of the 15 wins all time by 15 seeds came 2012 or later,
-14 seeds only beat a 3 seed twice in the 2000s,
– the only 2… https://t.co/d7PUknoEif

— GFed (@GfedGoCrazy) March 21, 2026

The Verdict

Maybe the tournament is doomed and Cinderella stories truly are a thing of the past. Again, I’m not going to be dismissive of the challenges that mid and low-major programs face in the modern era as they try to retain players and maintain continuity. I just need to see a few more years of this myself before I officially pull the plug. I saw enough on Thursday to convince me that the little guy still has a chance on the right day, even if Friday convinced me that those days are going to be fewer and further between.

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