National Bank Open 2025: Draw Preview and Analysis
The dual National Bank Open ATP Toronto draw preview and WTA Montreal draw preview have had a bevy of early withdrawals. Those top players remaining will be looking to steal some unusually accessible points and prize money. It’s a free-for-all. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Aryna Sabalenka and others have chosen to sit out this tournament, mainly due to load management.
Let’s see who’s left to take advantage of this rare opportunity in Masters 1000 events.
Toronto Draw Preview: Alexander Zverev
The withdrawals have not done top seed Alexander Zverev any favors. Players in his section include the unseeded Brazilian phenom Joao Fonseca, Tallon Griekspoor, Daniil Medvedev, defending champion Alexei Popyrin and a finally healthy Holger Rune.
Despite all this, I’m picking Zverev to get past Fonseca– barely– and meet Rune in a potential quarterfinal. That could be an interesting match, given external factors. Zverev, having just completed a training block in Spain with Toni Nadal, matches up well against Holger on hard court. Rune is freshly healthy and just trained for a few days with Andre Agassi. It’s almost a pick ‘em, but I stick with Zverev in 3 hard-fought sets based on current fitness levels.
Toronto Draw Preview: Canadians
All things equal, I like Canadians at home this year. Elbows up. Denis Shapovalov has been finding his groove and his timing on the backhand wing in recent weeks. He could face either Karen Khachanov or a rested Casper Ruud. Karen has never beaten Shapo, but Ruud has a 2-1 advantage in the h2h.
Reluctantly I’ll favor Casper in 3 sets even though Denis beat him to capture a title earlier this year. Ruud tends to learn from his close losses.
Ben Shelton Emerges On Tour
As a 4 seed, American Ben Shelton helms a quarter in a Masters 1000 event for the first time in his career. That’s exciting. Both Ben and tour stalwart Alex De Minaur have gone deep in the previous tournament in D.C. I have Shelton coming through a potential match with Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime due to Shelton’s enjoyment of a big-match atmosphere.
Even though Shelton is 22 years old and loaded with energy, a match-sharp De Minaur is a bridge too far. They’ve never met, and Ben is about to understand what a speedster and skilled racqueteer like Demon is all about. Alex in 2 if that happens, but Ben would learn from that match.
Toronto Draw Preview: Taylor Fritz
The final quarter features a re-emerging Taylor Fritz as the 2-seed. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who just knocked Taylor off in D.C., has landed in the American’s section yet again in 2025. I’m always amazed when players keep drawing each other like magnets in a given year. Fritz and ADF have met four times in the past 6 months alone. But I actually think Canadian upstart Gabriel Diallo, who barely lost to Fritz at Wimbledon, can find that extra few points this time.
Elsewhere in this compelling quarter, Andrey Rublev, Jakub Mensik and a returning Arthur Fils could all make strong runs. I’ll pick the hometown kid Diallo, whose serve, calm court presence and athleticism have sparked excitement in the True North.
My players to watch coming through:
QF: Zverev, Ruud, De Minaur, Diallo
SF: Zverev, De Minaur
F: De Minaur
Montreal Draw Preview: WTA
With Sabalenka out, American Coco Gauff is this tournament’s top seed. She’s been gifted a very doable draw in the National Bank Open. Assuming Gauff can get past an always dangerous Danielle Collins, her head-to-heads match up favorably until she would meet Jasmine Paolini in the quarters. Those two have split meetings 2-2. On a hard court, I lean toward Coco.
In quarter 2, it’s almost unfortunate that Canadian Leylah Fernandez made it to the final of D.C. It’s hard to pick weary players to come through in back-to-back tournaments, especially with the new longer formats in the Masters events. I’ll chalk this quarter with a meeting between Mirra Andreeva and Emma Navarro. I like Andreeva’s hard court skills over Navarro’s sublime defending.
The bottom half of this Montreal draw preview is loaded. Americans Amanda Anisimova and Jessica Pegula bookend quarter 3. A resurgent Emma Raducanu and the always formidable Naomi Osaka also float in this quarter. I’ll give the edge to the defending champion Pegula, who relies on timing for flat-ball consistency.
The final quarter features Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek, American Madison Keys, big serving Clara Tauson and Belinda Bencic. If Madi and Belinda meet, Keys leads the head-to-head 3-2 with victories on hard courts. Then Swiatek could look to avenge the hard court loss to Keys in the semifinals of this year’s Australian Open. Those two also met in Madrid this year, where Iga solved Madi’s serve.
My players to watch come through:
QF: Gauff, Andreeva, Pegula, Swiatek
SF: Andreeva, Swiatek
F: Andreeva
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