One of the surprises of the NFL season so far has been Drake Maye and the New England Patriots racing out to one of the best records in the AFC through the first half of the season. With nine weeks in the books, the second-year quarterback has led the Patriots to a 7-2 record, tied for the best mark in the NFL, and is a leading MVP candidate.
Part of that team success boils down to the schedule. While the Patriots did get a very impressive victory in prime time over the Buffalo Bills, a lot of their schedule has been against the last-place teams from a year ago.
On Sunday, Maye and company will get a chance to put any doubters to bed on Sunday when they head on the road to take on the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even after losing Liam Coen, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have continued to roll and are in firm control of the NFC South at the halfway point.
Mayfield was also hanging around in the MVP conversation earlier in the season, but a rough showing against the Lions has cooled some of that buzz. Now the focus is on Maye heading into one of his biggest games of the season.
While Tampa Bay will provide a stingier test than most of New England’s schedule, the North Carolina product will still be able to get his game off on Sunday. Here’s why.
Maye will create explosive plays against the Bucs’ pressure
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Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has become known for his exotic pressure packages throughout his time in the NFL, both as a defensive coordinator and a head coach. That has been no different this season, as the Bucs still love to heat up an opposing quarterback.
Of course, they get more chances to do that on obvious passing downs when opposing teams have to pick up big yards on late downs. Tampa Bay has been getting to those downs consistently this year with its improved run defense. Through nine weeks, the Bucs have the sixth-best EPA per rush allowed and have the fifth-best stuff rate in the league, stopping opposing runs for no gain or a loss of yards nearly 20% of the time.
The Bucs should continue to have success in that department against a Patriots offense that has struggled to run the ball efficiently and might be playing without Rhamondre Stevenson in this game. That’s where Maye comes in.
The second-year signal caller is no stranger to playing through pressure behind an improved, but still flawed New England offensive line. He is being pressured on nearly 40% of his dropbacks according to Next Gen Stats, the fifth-highest mark in the league among qualified passers.
Tampa Bay is getting plenty of pressure this season, notching the fourth-highest pressure rate in the NFL at over 39%. Maye is still prone to taking some sacks when under pressure, which should allow the Bucs to create some negative plays. However, the damage he can do with his arm could be fatal for Tampa Bay.
Maye is very good at operating on schedule and is a surgeon in the underneath areas of the field. Pop Douglas and Hunter Henry have become reliable targets that can get open early in the down, and Maye should be able to find them for some consistent gains.
On top of that, Maye has become one of the best deep-ball throwers in football. While he doesn’t go there often, he creates plenty of explosive plays through the air down the field. If Tampa Bay is going to blitz him, he will have some chances to attack down the field.
The loss of emerging receiver Kayshon Boutte will make it tougher for Maye to push the ball down the field, but his accuracy and arm strength allows him to compete deep passes to his smaller receivers as well. That could be a big key when Sunday rolls around.
Todd Bowles’ defense could unlock Maye’s scrambling
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One of the best things that Maye did coming out of college was hurt his defenses with his legs. Some scouts compared him to Josh Allen during his time at North Carolina due to his size and ability to scramble, using his elite athleticism to make plays with the ball in the open field.
Maye didn’t scramble a ton as a rookie, in part due to playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. However, he has opened that part of his game up this season. The former No. 3 pick currently leads the NFL with 38 total scrambles on the season and trails only Patrick Mahomes in rushing yards on those plays, according to PFF.
Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy scheme won’t allow a ton of those opportunities as Maye is playing dodgeball in the pocket. However, it does mean that there will be less players downfield to get Maye on the ground when he does take off, and there will be less eyes on the quarterback when Bowles’ defense is in man coverage. If the Bucs get out of their rush lanes, Maye will have chances to create some big plays with his feet.
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