March Madness: Top 6 Upsets So Far, Who's Next?

The 2026 NCAA Tournament already has brought us some upsets, although the tourney has been dominated by high seeds. The defending champions, Florida, have already been sent home. There are plenty of bluebloods who did not make it out alive early on. Additionally, a mid-major program is achieving its first tournament win in school history.

Here is a look at the top upsets in the tournament after two rounds, plus a prediction for a Sweet 16 matchup that could be the next big upset.

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Iowa 73, Florida 72 — Round of 32

Florida was on a mission to go back-to-back after winning the national championship last season. The Gators had the roster to make it that far, but couldn’t quite get it done. Despite having plenty of continuity from last year’s roster, the Gators got beat by a 9-seed on a wing three with 4.5 seconds left.

Alvaro Folgueiras caught it down two, shot ready, and didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Iowa led by 12 in the second half before the Gators chipped away and actually pulled ahead. Florida had every reason to feel good about where the game was. Then the buzzer went off, and they were done.

This is Iowa’s Sweet 16 since 1999, and now, their bracket region is wide open.

Texas 74, Gonzaga 68 — Round of 32

When Houston knocked off Gonzaga in last year’s Round of 32, it came after nine straight Sweet 16 appearances. Mark Few’s program had the benefit of the doubt.

Then Texas went up 74-68, and the clock ran out.

Gonzaga led by eight in the first half, but failed to put Texas away. The Longhorns responded with physicality in the second half, and the Zags couldn’t push back. Graham Ike made it a one-point game after throwing down a dunk. However, Camden Heide, who played only 13 minutes on the night, scored his only points of the game on a 3-pointer.

Suddenly, the Longhorns were up 72-68. Gonzaga then missed a 3-pointer on the other end. Two straight rounds of 32 exits after nine straight Sweet 16s is not a blip anymore for the Zags.

High Point’s win over Wisconsin called by Student Radio.

This is why we love March
pic.twitter.com/ThgCvgMD0i

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) March 20, 2026

High Point 83, Wisconsin 82 — First Round

High Point never won an NCAA Tournament game before getting the job done against Wisconsin last Thursday. The winning formula included a combination of out rebounding, out running, and out hustling Wisconsin for 40 minutes until the Badgers ran out of time to flip the script when it mattered most.

Thirteen offensive boards to Wisconsin’s six. Fastbreak points 16-5. Total rebounding 40-37. Those are the numbers from a game where the Big Ten five-seed was supposed to impose its will on a mid-major, but it went the other direction completely. The final four minutes were genuinely chaotic, and High Point kept getting the ball back when they needed it.

Wisconsin has lost in the first round three of the last six times they’ve made the tournament. James Madison last year, High Point this year. It’s been nine years without a Sweet 16 appearance for the Badgers.

VCU 82, North Carolina 78 — First Round

UNC was up by as many as 19, but VCU’s defense made the second half so uncomfortable that the Tar Heels fell apart in the half court. Shots stopped falling and there were no shortage of empty possessions. Coach Hubert Davis and crew weren’t finding answers. A late five second call was critical.

Suddenly, any margin for error was gone, Carolina looked rattled in a way that a team with that program’s history probably shouldn’t look. As a result, the Tar Heels fired coach Davis. A fitting consequence for a meltdown of this magnitude.

Texas 79, BYU 71 — First Round

Leading into this game, Texas’ Tramon Mark hit a buzzer-beater to beat NC State, 68-66, in the First Four. Texas flew to Portland and beat a BYU team led by AJ Dybantsa by eight.

Matas Vokietaitis of Texas had 23 points and 16 rebounds, as Texas dominated the boards early before BYU could establish its identity. Dybantsa dropped 35 and 10 for the Cougars and still trailed at halftime and the rest of the way. Mark went 4-for-4 at the line with 18 seconds left to close it. BYU was a comfortable favorite coming in.

Texas lost five of its final six games before March Madness. The Longhorns have now won three straight games as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament to reach the Sweet 16.

Sean Miller has a spicy lineup with Swain, Pope, Mark, and Vokietaitis pic.twitter.com/yM2ZNsFNHu

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) March 22, 2026

Texas A&M 63, Saint Mary’s 50 — First Round

The scouting report going into the tournament for St. Mary’s was an understanding that they like to slow teams down, protect the paint, and suffocate those who want to play fast. Despite that, Texas A&M scored rather easily.

A & M’s Rashaun Agee scored 22 and grabbed nine rebounds and was the most dominant player on the floor most of the night. The Aggies never let the Gaels get comfortable in the half-court, and never needed a late run to close it.

Sweet 16 Upset Special: Texas Over Purdue

The No. 11 seeded Longhorns have already done it twice. Why can’t they do it again?

Purdue uses size and half-court precision to grind teams down across 40 minutes. Texas has been a tough opponent for that type of style. Gonzaga’s half-court offense couldn’t control the game well enough. Neither could BYU’s defense. Texas keeps surviving and is doing so with different guys making critical plays. The Horns appear to be peaking at the right time. Purdue has not been stressed yet. Texas has stayed in survival mode needing to find a way with the odds stacked against them.

There hasn’t been many, but if one more upset happens, Texas could be the one to do it.