Justin Jefferson has thrived, regardless of who is passing him the football. He has put up big numbers when all of Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullins, or Jaren Hall were throwing him the pigskin.
Still, fantasy football managers are questioning whether or not Jefferson will be his usual dominant self with a second-year rookie quarterbacking the team. J.J. McCarthy will be the man under center for the Minnesota Vikings this year, but how does that change Jefferson’s fantasy football outlook in 2025?
Justin Jefferson’s 2024 fantasy football statistics
Jefferson always seems to be open. His elite route running and reliable hands make him the ultimate security blanket for quarterbacks. Last season, Jefferson finished as receiver No. 2 in fantasy scoring. He had 317.5 PPR points and 214.5 standard points.
Those numbers only trailed Ja’Marr Chase, who had a historic Triple Crown-winning season. Jefferson put up these big numbers despite the fact that Darnold quarterbacked the Vikings last season.
Prior to last year, the USC product looked like one of the biggest draft busts in recent memory. The Vikings were his fourth team after he was drafted third overall in 2018. Jefferson helped turn Darnold into a Pro Bowler, though.
Darnold threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns last season. Jefferson caught 103 passes for 1,533 of those yards and 10 touchdowns.
Justin Jefferson’s 2025 fantasy football projections
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Things will look different in 2025 for Jefferson. McCarthy, the 10th overall pick in 2024 who missed his rookie season because of a meniscus injury, will take over at quarterback after Darnold left for a contract with the Seattle Seahawks. McCarthy has plenty of potential and some winning experience. He led Michigan to a national championship in college.
However, it isn’t a guarantee that he will work out at the NFL level. There were six quarterbacks drafted in the first round of McCarthy’s draft class, but many scouts and draft experts pinned McCarthy as the worst quarterback of that bunch. Some reports have suggested that he has struggled during training camp thus far.
Even so, Jefferson has played with his fair share of underwhelming quarterbacks before, and there is definitely a chance that McCarthy actually becomes his best quarterback to date. Whether McCarthy struggles or succeeds in his first season under center, Jefferson will still likely put up big numbers.
ESPN predicts him to catch 116 balls for 1,455 yards and 10 touchdowns. That would be a sizable improvement in the reception department, which would greatly help Jefferson’s fantasy production.
Fantasy football receiver rankings
The top two fantasy football receivers from last season aren’t expected to change this year. Jefferson is once again expected to only trail Chase on big boards. Jefferson has an average draft position of 4.6. The LSU product actually has room to grow in 2025, too.
The elite receiver underwent a six-game stretch without a touchdown last season when he was used as somewhat of a decoy. A down period that lasts that long is unlikely this season, even with a young quarterback throwing him the football.
The Vikings still have Kevin O’Connell calling plays, too. The Vikings’ head coach is an offensive mastermind that should be able to both draw up plays for Jefferson and make life easier on McCarthy.
From a pure talent perspective, Chase is the only receiver with a claim of being better than Jefferson. Therefore, those two will likely battle it out to be the top-ranked fantasy receiver at season’s end.
Chase has the edge for now because Joe Burrow is one of the best players in the NFL, but Jefferson is as steady as they come. Jefferson has been dealing with a mild hamstring strain, but the injury isn’t expected to hold the receiver back this season.
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