The Jacksonville Jaguars are heading to Houston with momentum and opportunity. Sitting at 5-3 and currently holding the seventh seed in the AFC playoff race, the Jaguars have a golden chance to bury their divisional rivals and potentially turn the AFC South into a two-team race with Indianapolis. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are desperately trying to salvage their season at 3-5, now forced to turn to backup quarterback Davis Mills after C.J. Stroud was ruled out with a concussion.
This matchup carries enormous implications for both franchises. For Jacksonville, a victory would give them a commanding four-game lead over Houston with the head-to-head tiebreaker, essentially eliminating the Texans from serious division contention. The Jaguars have already proven they can beat Houston this season, taking a 17-10 victory in Week 3. For the Texans, this is about survival—another loss would drop them to 3-6 and make their playoff hopes nearly impossible to salvage.
With the stakes this high and both teams fighting for their postseason lives, here are three bold predictions for Sunday’s critical AFC South showdown.
Jakobi Meyers Catches Eight Passes for 95 Yards in Jaguars Debut
© Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
The newly-acquired receiver will make an immediate impact for Jacksonville’s struggling passing attack. Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent this season, completing just 59.7% of his passes with a pedestrian 79.7 passer rating. The Jaguars desperately needed a reliable possession receiver, and Meyers’ reputation for sure hands—just 11 drops in his entire seven-year career—makes him the perfect solution to Jacksonville’s league-leading drop problem.
Meyers has extensive experience playing against Houston, holding a winning record against the Texans as one of only two teams he’s had success against. Despite joining the team just days ago, offensive coordinator Liam Coen will feature Meyers heavily in slot formations and quick-hitting routes that allow Lawrence to get the ball out fast against Houston’s aggressive defense.
The Texans rank first in total defense but have shown vulnerability against possession receivers working the middle of the field. With Brian Thomas Jr. potentially limited by an ankle injury and Travis Hunter on injured reserve, Meyers becomes Lawrence’s most dependable target immediately. Houston’s defense will key on stopping the run and deep shots to Thomas, leaving Meyers open underneath repeatedly. His chemistry with Lawrence will develop quickly through simple, high-percentage throws that move the chains and keep drives alive.
Josh Hines-Allen Records Three Sacks and Forces Two Fumbles
The Texans’ offensive line has been under siege all season, and with Davis Mills making his first start since 2021, Josh Hines-Allen is poised to have a field day. The Jacksonville pass rusher terrorized Houston in their first meeting, recording one sack and three quarterback hits while making Stroud’s afternoon miserable. Now facing a backup quarterback who completed just 17 of 30 passes for 137 yards in relief against Denver, Hines-Allen should feast.
According the NFL Pro, #Jaguars DE Josh Hines Allen had the second-most pressures (8) and second-highest pressure rate (28.6%) of any pre-MNF defender pic.twitter.com/pXZ7UMEbt8
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) September 8, 2025
Mills has been sacked multiple times in nearly every game he’s played, and the Texans’ offensive line hasn’t improved since their first meeting with Jacksonville. The Jaguars defensive end has been hunting Houston quarterbacks for years, and this represents his best opportunity to make a game-breaking impact. With the Texans missing key offensive linemen Ed Ingram and potentially Tytus Howard, the protection will be even worse than usual.
Expect Hines-Allen to blow past overmatched tackles and force Mills into quick, panicked decisions that lead to at least two strip-sack opportunities. The Jaguars have struggled to generate consistent pressure this season, ranking last in total sacks through nine weeks. But against a backup quarterback and a depleted offensive line, Hines-Allen will dominate and potentially set a new franchise single-game sack record while forcing critical turnovers.
The Jaguars Win 23-13 Behind a Dominant Defensive Performance
The Houston offense has been utterly abysmal, especially in losses this season. In their five defeats, the Texans have scored just four touchdowns total, and they’ve converted red zone trips into touchdowns at a putrid 10% clip in those games. Now without their franchise quarterback, facing the league’s worst red zone offense gets even uglier with Davis Mills under center.
Jacksonville’s defense will force Mills into at least three turnovers while limiting Houston to field goals instead of touchdowns. The Texans went three-for-17 on third down against Denver with Mills and managed just 160 passing yards in his two appearances this season. Mills has a career record of 5-19-1 as a starter with 35 touchdowns against 25 interceptions, and he’s facing a secondary that ranks second in the NFL with 11 interceptions through eight games.
Travis Etienne will control the clock with over 100 rushing yards, while Lawrence avoids major mistakes and lets the defense and running game dictate the tempo. The Jaguars score on two Lawrence rushing touchdowns and three field goals, while Houston manages just a Mills touchdown pass to Nico Collins and two field goals. Jacksonville’s defense, which held the Texans to 10 points in Week 3, will once again stifle a Houston offense that ranks dead last in red zone touchdown percentage and has averaged just 21 points per game entering this matchup.
The Jaguars leave Houston with a statement victory that announces them as legitimate playoff contenders while effectively ending the Texans’ postseason hopes. Jacksonville moves to 6-3 with complete control over their playoff destiny, while Houston falls to 3-6 and faces an uphill battle just to reach .500.
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