There are just eight teams left in the NFL field as the playoffs rage on and the best of the best get ready for the Divisional Round. The AFC will kick things off on Saturday afternoon with a heavyweight matchup between the top-seeded Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos had the Wild Card Round off after securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a stellar 14-3 regular season, dethroning the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West. The Denver defense has been very good throughout the season, and the Broncos have won a lot of close games to get to this point.
The Bills have had things a little tougher, but they still got into the postseason comfortably with a 12-5 mark behind another great year from Josh Allen. Buffalo went into Jacksonville, which had won eight games in a row, and knocked off the Jaguars 27-24 in the Wild Card Round to get to Denver with a trip to the conference title game on the line.
This is a fascinating battle because Denver has the better roster from top to bottom, but Allen is the trump card that can get Buffalo to the next round. Here’s a look at how he will fare against the Broncos defense, and how Vance Joseph’s group can slow him down.
Can Bills run the ball against Broncos?
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Allen gets a lot of the praise in Buffalo, but the Bills have had one of the best running games in the league this season. James Cook won the NFL rushing title in 2025 with 1,621 yards, and the Bills finished third in the league in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate this season according to Next Gen Stats.
Buffalo couldn’t get anything going against a stout Jaguars front in the Wild Card Round, but Josh Allen was on fire for four quarters and was still able to help his offense move the ball consistently. However, against a Broncos team that has a much stronger secondary than the Jags have, the Bills need to run the ball to have success.
Denver’s season-long numbers against the run are similar to Jacksonville’s, but teams have had some more success against the Broncos late in the season. Vance Joseph’s defense held 10 opponents under four yards per carry this season, but nine of those games came before Week 11.
On the other side, the Bills have only been held under four yards per carry three times, including the Jaguars game, and have three games where the team averaged more than six yards per attempt. If Buffalo can keep it rolling on the ground with Cook, that could be a big factor.
Denver secondary will have advantage over Bills’ banged-up receivers
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In the passing game, the Broncos have a clear advantage on the outside. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in football and Riley Moss is a very good No. 2, even if he has been penalty-prone this season. In the slot, Ja’Quan McMillian and Jahdae Barron are both quality players.
On the Buffalo side, an already dire receiver room got even more thin in the Wild Card Round. The Bills were already playing without Josh Palmer, and they lost both Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to torn ACL injuries in the win over Jacksonville. That leaves just Keon Coleman, Brandin Cooks and Khalil Shakir as the threats on the outside. Curtis Samuel could also return in Denver.
Buffalo will likely use a lot of tight ends and running backs in the passing game, even though Ty Johnson is still sidelined with an ankle injury and Ray Davis got banged up during the Jaguars game.
The Broncos have a very good pass defense, but they rank just 15th in the NFL in EPA per pass against tight end targets this season according to Next Gen Stats. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox form one of the top tight end duos in the league, so that should be a big part of the gameplan for Joe Brady and the Bills offense in this one.
Josh Allen will have to win with his brain again
[Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]In the end, this game will come down to Allen, like the rest of the Bills’ games usually do. Despite no running game and very little receiving talent, Allen was still a savant against the Jaguars, finishing 28-for-35 with 273 yards and three total touchdowns.
When Allen came into the league, his physical skills took the league by storm early in his career. However, he has now shown the ability to win before the snap at the line of scrimmage and by getting the ball out on time and accurately to the right receiver time and time again. That is even more paramount now that he is playing through a number of injuries, including to his knee and foot.
The biggest deciding factor in this game may very well come on Allen’s pressured dropbacks. The Broncos led the NFL by a wide margin this season with 285 total pressures and an astonishing 68 sacks while getting after the quarterback more than 40% of the time, the second-best mark in football.
The Bills’ offensive line has been a little susceptible to allowing pressure this season, but none of that will faze Allen. The reigning league MVP was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL under pressure this season, and that continued against the Jaguars.
It’s just a one-game sample, but Allen absolutely took over the Bills’ first playoff game when the Jags heated him up. On pressured dropbacks last week, Allen finished 9-for-12 with 144 yards and a +0.19 EPA per dropback, a mark that would be close to the top of the NFL on all passing plays over a full season. He also made the biggest play of the game in the face of a free runner on Buffalo’s game-winning drive.
ALLEN TO A WIDE OPEN COOKS. 36 YARDS.
BUFvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
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— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2026
Allen will certainly be feeling the heat on Saturday from the Denver pass rush, but he will also be under fire from the crowd at Empower Field. However, that shouldn’t faze one of the best road playoff performers in NFL history. In five career road playoff starts, he is averaging 342 yards per game with nine touchdowns and just one interception according to Next Gen Stats.
He will need a similar performance on Saturday if he wants to beat a loaded Broncos team. But if Allen has taught us anything in the past, it’s to never count him out of any game. He put his Superman cape on in the Wild Card Round, and he will have to do it again to beat the Broncos.
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