Bijan Robinson was drafted eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. In the years leading up to his arrival in the NFL, teams were hesitant to draft running backs early in the first round. That is, if they were willing to select a ball-carrier in the first round at all.
Robinson has helped change the narrative that running backs aren’t valuable in the NFL, though. He was one of the best prospects at his position in recent memory, and he has quickly become one of the best running backs in the league.
Robinson made the Pro Bowl last season, but he still has room to grow. Many experts expect a true breakout performance in 2025, and a projected big year is translating to high expectations in fantasy football. So, how well is the Atlanta Falcons star expected to perform in fantasy football this season?
Bijan Robinson’s 2024 fantasy football statistics
In 2023, as a rookie, Robinson was good but not great from a fantasy perspective. He had 214 carries for 976 yards and four rushing touchdowns to go along with 58 receptions for 487 yards. Those are impressive marks, but they were somewhat disappointing numbers in comparison to what was expected for Robinson. The Texas product was drafted so high, both in the 2023 NFL Draft and during fantasy football drafts that year, because he was expected to immediately dominate.
Robinson further burst onto the scene in his second year. His numbers skyrocketed to 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground, in addition to 61 catches. That amounted to 341.7 PPR fantasy points and 280.7 fantasy points in standard leagues, which was good enough for third and fourth place finishes during the 2024 season, respectively.
Saquon Barkley, who ran for 2,000 yards, outscored Robinson in both formats, as did Jahmyr Gibbs. Derrick Henry was the only other player to outscore Robinson in standard fantasy leagues.
Bijan Robinson’s 2025 fantasy football projection
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Robinson’s numbers are expected to drop slightly in 2025. ESPN predicts him to run for 1,422 yards and 12 touchdowns and to catch 62 passes for 490 yards this season. While those rushing statistics would be slightly worse than what Robinson accomplished last season, they are still good for the fourth most projected rushing yards in the league.
It wouldn’t come as a surprise if Robinson actually improved on his rushing statistics from last season. Tyler Allgeier had a bigger role than expected last year, but the Falcons could turn Robinson into a pure bell-cow running back who takes nearly all of the backfield touches this season.
Robinson could also improve because Michael Penix Jr. will be the full-time starting quarterback this season. Penix Jr. likes to throw dump-offs to running backs, and his youth could lead to him relying on Robinson as a security blanket. Good football teams never want to put too much pressure on their young quarterbacks, so the Falcons will likely ensure that Penix isn’t overwhelmed by handing the ball off to Robinson frequently.
Bijan Robinson’s 2025 fantasy football running back ranking
Robinson is widely being ranked as the best fantasy football running back and the second-best fantasy player overall, only trailing Ja’Marr Chase. Robinson’s average draft position is 2.8, and there is a case for him being the number one pick in fantasy drafts.
The receiver position is much deeper than the running back position, so it wouldn’t be hard for fantasy managers to convince themselves to take Robinson at the top of the draft.
There have only been nine 2,000-yard rushing seasons ever, and no running back has ever repeated that feat. Therefore, regression can be expected from Barkley. The same can be said for Henry. The Baltimore Ravens star ran for 1,921 yards, but he will be 32 years old by the end of next season. Running backs who are above the age of 30 rarely find tons of success.
Gibbs will have to split carries this year with David Montgomery as well, and it seems unlikely that the duo can each surpass 1o rushing touchdowns again. Robinson has likely yet to hit his peak, and historically, year three is a big one for running backs. Robinson can definitely end the year as the best player in fantasy football.
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