The Big Ten Tournament begins Tuesday afternoon at the United Center in Chicago, and it should be an action-packed week of hoops for what is arguably the strongest conference in the country this season. Not only are five Big Ten teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 12, there are a handful of teams outside the main group of contenders that can make some noise in the Windy City.
Who will come out on top in the House That Jordan Built? To be decided. But here’s how we think it will go down.
The 2026 Big Ten Tournament Bracket. pic.twitter.com/6XsNBMRMr7
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 8, 2026
First Round
Game 1: No. 16 Oregon vs No. 17 Maryland
Winner faces No. 9 Iowa
We knew Kevin Willard would be a substantial loss for the Maryland program when he packed his desk and left for Villanova, but I don’t think we were prepared for just how awful the Buzz Williams experience was going to be in College Park. The Terps went 4-16 in Big Ten play and have lost six of their last seven games to limp to the regular season finish line. Oregon hasn’t been much to write home about either, but the Ducks also had a brutal stretch of scheduling in January and early February where they played an opponent currently ranked in KenPom’s top 30 in eight of nine games. Oregon has also won three of five to end the season, so I’m not too worried about a slip-up here.
Pick: Oregon
Game 2: No. 15 Northwestern vs. No. 18 Penn State
Winner faces No. 10 Indiana
You’ll be hard pressed to find a power conference program that gets less respect than these Penn State Nittany Lions in the metrics, who are currently ranked an abysmal 137th in KenPom. That puts them in the same neighborhood as mid-major programs Wright State and Northern Colorado, who clearly don’t have the same recruiting resources as a Big Ten program. Northwestern has had a tough end to its regular season by losing seven out of 10, but the Wildcats will get at least one win in Chicago this week.
Pick: Northwestern
Second Round
Game 3: No. 16 Oregon vs. No. 9 Iowa
Winner faces No. 8 Ohio State
Bennett Stirtz and Iowa are far more dangerous than the Hawkeyes’ 10-10 Big Ten record indicates, but a disastrous finish saw them lose six of their final eight games to close the regular season, including an inexplicable 71-69 setback to Penn State on Feb. 28. Still, Iowa handled Oregon decisively in the teams’ lone meeting this season, and while I expect this one to be closer, I still think the Hawkeyes will put a halt to their recent skid against an unpredictable Oregon team.
Pick: Iowa
Game 4: No. 13 USC vs. No. 12 Washington
Winner faces No. 5 Wisconsin
Luckily for USC fans, who surely don’t want to see anymore of this basketball team, the Trojans’ Big Ten tournament run will be short lived. Not only did USC end the regular season on a seven game losing streak, 26-year-old starting guard Chad Baker-Mazara straight up ditched the program at the start of the month. We’ll cut Alijah Arenas some slack, but his inefficiency has been a major issue for USC this season and will be something the Trojans can’t overcome here.
Pick: Washington
Game 5: No. 15 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Indiana
Winner faces No. 7 Purdue
Northwestern upset the Hoosiers 72-68 just a few weeks ago, but I’d need to be convinced that the Wildcats have enough luck left in them to pull off the same feat twice. Indiana has limped to the regular-season finish line like a handful of its conference counterparts, but it deserves a bit of slack considering three of their final six losses of the regular season came against teams who are currently ranked in KenPom’s top 10.
Pick: Indiana
Game 6: No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Minnesota
Winner faces No. 6 UCLA
Minnesota is less than three weeks removed from trouncing Rutgers by 19 points at home, and I certainly haven’t seen enough from the Scarlet Knights to trust that they can close that gap the second time around. The Golden Gophers have won four of their last six games to end the regular season and have an impressive win against Michigan State in tow, so you don’t have to feel too shady backing Minnesota in this one.
Pick: Minnesota
Third Round
Game 7: No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 8 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 1 Michigan
Iowa beat Ohio State by 17 points at home on Feb. 24. However, since that night, Ohio State has won three games in a row and earned a win over a top-10 Purdue team while Iowa ended the regular season on a three-game losing streak that included that aforementioned disaster against Penn State. Something has to be said for how a team finishes the regular season when you start heading into these single elimination matchups, and the Buckeyes undoubtedly finished stronger after losing that initial game to Iowa. This time at a neutral site and with momentum on its side, Ohio State will avenge their dud from a few weeks ago.
Pick: Ohio State
Game 8: No. 12 Washington vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
Winner faces No. 4 Illinois
Wisconsin has quietly been a problem in a stacked Big Ten. The Badgers earned the best win of any team nationally this season, upsetting then-unbeaten No. 1 Michigan, 91-88, in a thrilling road upset, and they also have wins against KenPom top 10 opponents Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue. To keep it simple, this isn’t a team anyone in the conference wants to see in a one-game scenario. Washington shouldn’t be an issue for this pack of Badgers.
Pick: Wisconsin
Game 9: No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Purdue
Winner faces No. 2 Nebraska
Only in the Big Ten can you be ranked eighth in KenPom and 18th in the AP Poll and still be a seventh seed in your own conference tournament, but that’s exactly the predicament Braden Smith and Purdue are left with after losing four of their last six games in conference play. In fairness, those losses came against four tough opponents in Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin, so I don’t think it’s fair to hit the panic button in Lafayette yet. Purdue should be able to handle their hated in-state rival Hoosiers in this third round clash.
Pick: Purdue
Game 10: No. 11 Minnesota vs. No. 6 UCLA
Winner faces No. 3 Michigan State
The only team to beat UCLA in the Bruins’ last six games was Minnesota, but Mick Cronin’s crew is conveniently playing some of the best basketball of their season recently. Wins over Illinois and Nebraska within the last three weeks proved the Bruins can hang with anyone in the conference. Minnesota has an elite weapon themselves in Cade Tyson, but UCLA’s Donovan Dent is no stranger to March and is certainly no stranger to lighting up a conference tournament. I got the Bruins here in a thriller.
Pick: UCLA
Quarterfinals
Game 11: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Michigan
Winner faces No. 5 Wisconsin or No. 4 Illinois
How lucky would we be to get a Big Ten tournament with both Indiana-Purdue and Ohio State-Michigan? Big Blue trounced the Buckeyes 82-61 on Super Bowl Sunday, but Ohio State showed they can hang with the cream of the conference by beating Wisconsin and Purdue later in the season. Still, this Michigan team is a beast that needs no further introduction, and you shouldn’t be surprised when Yaxel Lendeborg and company hang another 20 piece on the Buckeyes in Chicago.
Pick: Michigan
Game 12: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Illinois
Winner faces No. 8 Ohio State or No. 1 Michigan
Wisconsin upset Illinois, 92-90, in overtime last month, but like the Illini’s loss to Nebraska earlier in the season, you felt like Wisconsin escaped with a victory as opposed to being the truly better team. Beating a great team twice is already tough, but it’s even tougher when that first win is as close and competitive as Wisconsin’s was. With a month to stew on it, I bet Brad Underwood’s team comes out inspired and ultimately on top in what should certainly be one of the better games of the week.
Pick: Illinois
Game 13: No. 7 Purdue vs. No. 2 Nebraska
Winner faces No. 6 UCLA or No. 3 Michigan
As great as Nebraska has been this season, Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers have lost five of their last six games against teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 30, and yes, that includes an 80-77 overtime setback against Purdue. Nebraska has been the story of the Big Ten basketball season this year and it would undoubtedly be a plus for the conference if the Huskers made a run through the bracket in Chicago, but I can’t shake the feeling that Purdue will once again be too much for them.
Pick: Purdue
Game 14: No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 3 Michigan State
Winner faces No. 7 Purdue or No. 2 Nebraska
Michigan State proved the gap between itself and UCLA was rather substantial in an 82-59 blowout last month, and while the Bruins are playing verifiably better basketball, I still have to side with Tom Izzo whenever the Hall of Famer has a roster like the one he currently has in tow. The only truly questionable loss Sparty has suffered this season was a 3-point setback against Minnesota, but they’ve had no problem with any other team that wasn’t a legit conference title threat. I don’t envision Cronin’s Bruins causing too many problems for Sparty here.
Pick: Michigan State
Semifinals
Game 15: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Illinois
Winner to championship
When Michigan beat Illinois by 14 in Champaign a few weeks ago, it became immediately apparent that there’s still a very real gap between the Wolverines and the rest of the Big Ten conference. The loss to Wisconsin at home can certainly be written off as a fluke, considering Michigan also beat Michigan State (x2) and Purdue by decisive double-digit outcomes. The Illini certainly have a chance to make a run during March Madness, but the run in Chicago will end in the semifinals.
Pick: Michigan
Game 16: No. 7 Purdue vs. No. 3 Michigan State
Winner to championship
The recent trajectories of Purdue and Michigan State would suggest that Sparty should be able to knock off the Boilermakers for the second time in just over two weeks, but my theory is that Purdue’s (projected) wins over Indiana and Nebraska to start the tournament will build them enough momentum to carry them to the title game. Analytically, the two teams are about as close as they come, so this game will all but certainly come down to a few possessions late in the second half. I have to trust Braden Smith in those scenarios, even if Sparty got the better of Purdue in a similar spot the first time around.
Pick: Purdue
Championship
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 7 Purdue
The only truly justifiable way this Big Ten season ends is with Michigan, one of the all-time great regular season teams in conference history, raising the tournament trophy at the United Center on Sunday. Between the frontcourt combination of Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. and trio of talented guards in Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney and LJ Cason, the only teams that can realistically compete talent and depth wise are Arizona and Duke. As strong and experienced as Purdue is, the Boilermakers (who were ranked AP No. 1 preseason) have shown that they are just a tier below the national championship level they were expected to be at. Michigan is playing beyond a national championship level at this point, so it isn’t hard to see where this Big Ten championship game is going to go.
Pick: Michigan
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