The Big 12 Tournament is set to tip off at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City on Tuesday, and it’s sure to be chaotic. Three of the conference’s contenders are currently ranked in the top seven of the AP Poll in Arizona, Houston and Iowa State, while Kansas and Texas Tech are each ranked in the top 16. That’s not to mention Johnny Dawkins and UCF, who was the surprise of the season in the conference, or potential No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa and his turbulent BYU Cougars.
Let’s break down the bracket and see who will come out on top of arguably the toughest conference in college basketball this season.
A historic #Big12MBB season has led us to this moment.
The OFFICIAL 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket is here pic.twitter.com/tkKZYPWggt
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 8, 2026
First Round
Game 1: No. 13 Baylor vs. No. 12 Arizona State
Winner faces No. 5 seed Iowa State
A five-point win over the Sun Devils was a rare highlight in a nightmarish Big 12 season for Baylor, who did pick it up a little bit to close the season. Still, Arizona State has earned impressive wins against Kansas and Texas Tech this season and I expect them to avenge that Feb. 21 slip in Waco in another relatively close game to start the week.
Pick: Arizona State
Game 2: No. 16 Utah vs. No. 9 Cincinnati
Winner faces No. 8 seed UCF
Cincinnati is the most bipolar team in the conference, beating Iowa State, Kansas and BYU in decisive fashion while also losing duds to Arizona State and West Virginia. Still, Cincinnati has a four-headed monster of scorers all averaging over 11 points per game, which should be enough to end a disturbing season for Utah that only produced a pair of wins in conference play.
Pick: Cincinnati
Game 3: No. 15 Kansas State vs. No 10. BYU
Winner faces No. 7 seed West Virginia
I’m not sure how far AJ Dybantsa can take BYU in this tournament without Richie Saunders to help him lift that roster, but I don’t think Cougs fans have to worry about dropping this one against a Kansas State program that’s in shambles after firing Jerome Tang midseason. I’ll take BYU big.
Pick: BYU
Game 4: No. 14 Oklahoma State vs. No. 11 Colorado
Winner faces No. 6 seed TCU
Oklahoma State has lost seven of its last nine games in Big 12 play, while Colorado has won three of its last five. One of those wins was a 14-point triumph over this same group of Cowboys, and I can’t imagine they’ll be able to make up that difference this time around. It will be closer, but I’m still rolling with the Buffaloes.
Pick: Colorado
Second Round
Game 5: No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Iowa State
Winner faces No. 4 seed Texas Tech
Iowa State has already earned itself a bit of a warning label ahead of March Madness, owing to an unpredictable recent stretch: three losses in the Cyclones’ last six conference games after a highly publicized 16-0 start to the season. If they don’t handle Arizona State decisively in this second round matchup, you can certainly ring the alarms in Ames. Fortunately for TJ Otzelberger and company, I don’t think that will happen.
Pick: Iowa State
Game 6: No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No 8. UCF
Winner faces No. 1 Arizona
Like I said in the intro, Big 12 Coach of the Year Johnny Dawkins and the UCF Knights have been among the most intriguing stories in the conference this season, winning 20 regular season games for the first time since 2018-19. However, the Knights ended the regular-season with three straight losses to Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, who aren’t exactly the cream of the crop in the conference this season. Cincinnati will enter with the advantage of having accrued some momentum with what should be a tune-up win over Utah, and I think the Bearcats will ride it to a second round victory in this 8 vs. 9 matchup.
Pick: Cincinnati
Game 7: No. 10 BYU vs. No. 7 West Virginia
Winner faces No. 2 Houston
West Virginia surprised BYU with a 79-71 win on Feb. 28, but I think Dybantsa is going to enter this second round matchup with a chip on his shoulder and a mind for vengeance. It might take 35+ points out of him, but he and the Cougs need all they can get in terms of a seeding boost on Selection Sunday after limping to the finish line during the regular season.
Pick: BYU
Game 8: No. 11 Colorado vs. No. 6 TCU
Winner faces No. 3 Kansas
TCU won eight of its last nine games to end the regular season, but the loss before the Horned Frogs began that run was a 26-point drubbing at the Buffaloes’ hands on Feb. 1. It’s hard to pass that off as a fluke, and that result is exactly the kind that will linger in the back of even the hottest teams’ mind when the single-elimination season comes around. March is made for madness, so why can’t 11-seeded Colorado crash the Big 12 quarterfinal party?
Pick: Colorado
Quarterfinals
Game 9: No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Winner faces No. 9 Cincinnati or No. 1 Arizona
Texas Tech had an admirable finish response to star JT Toppin’s season-ending torn ACL in mid February, immediately ripping off three wins in a row against Kansas State, Cincinnati, and *checks notes* Iowa State before reality caught up to the Red Raiders in their final two games against TCU and BYU (both losses). I always say my favorite adage in sports is that it’s tough to beat a great team twice, and it’s even harder doing it twice without your best player. Texas Tech keeps it close and entertaining, but Iowa State moves on to the semis.
Pick: Iowa State
Game 10: No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Arizona
Winner faces No. 5 Iowa State or No. 4 Texas Tech
No need to rack your brain too hard for this one, folks. Koa Peat is back from injury and looking like his usual self again, Jayden Bradley is fresh off being crowned Big 12 Player of the Year and Brayden Burries will likely be drafted before either of them. Expect the Wildcats to start the postseason with a bang against a Cincinnati team that will have used up all of its luck by the time it gets here.
Pick: Arizona
Game 11: No. 10 seed BYU vs. No. 2 seed Houston
Winner faces No. 11 seed Colorado or No. 3 seed Kansas
I said Dybantsa won’t be able to get through the Big 12 gauntlet on his own, and the lack of support post-Saunders injury will predictably catch up to him against reigning conference champion Houston in this battle of Cougars. Kelvin Sampson’s bunch is arguably even better than the national runner-ups from a year ago, adding freshman phenoms Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac to a core of returning starters including Emmanuel Sharp, JoJo Tugler and Milos Uzan.
Pick: Houston
Game 12: No. 11 Colorado vs. No. 3 Kansas
Winner faces No. 10 seed BYU or No. 2 seed Houston
The Jayhawks have gone full Jekyll-and-Hyde mode since Valentines Day, losing four of their last seven games, but Colorado’s run through the tournament should give Kansas a more manageable quarterfinal opponent than maybe it was originally expecting. The Buffaloes’ run will come to end, presumably because Darryn Peterson will rise to the occasion and do Darryn Peterson things. But even if he doesn’t, Kansas is strong enough to avoid a slip-up this round. It might not be a long postseason for Kansas, but it will at least start off on the right note.
Pick: Kansas
Semifinals
Game 13: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 5 Iowa State
Winner to championship
When Arizona lost back to back games to Kansas and Texas Tech in mid-February, the rest of Big 12 play could have gone one of two ways. It ended up going the right way, as the Wildcats won their final six regular season games and beat Houston and Iowa State in the process. That 16-point win over the Cyclones only occurred on March 2, and Iowa State’s three losses in its final five games is the clearest indicator of the fact that these two teams are going in entirely different directions heading into March Madness. Remember, looking like a contender in January and truly being a contender in March are two different realities. Arizona is a real contender, Iowa State isn’t.
Pick: Arizona
Game 14: No. 2. Houston vs. No. 3 Kansas
Winner to championship
One of these teams is loaded with Big 12 championship DNA and a pair of freshman that stacks up to any in the country, and the other has been on a month-long roller coaster ride and has been inundated with questions about the commitment of its star player. Even Bill Self recently said that Kelvin Sampson was the best college basketball coach in America, and it’s hard to argue that point when you consider just how thoroughly these Cougars have dismantled one of the great conferences in college hoops since joining ahead of the 2023-24 season. The Big 12 hasn’t seen a championship game without Houston since the Cougars have arrived, and the conference will have to wait another year to see if that streak ends.
Pick: Houston
Championship
No. 1 Arizona vs No. 2 Houston
For the second straight season, Arizona and Houston will meet in the Big 12 championship game. Last year, Houston pulled away with a decisive second-half effort, but these Wildcats are far more imposing than the 2025 team that gave Houston a first half scare on this stage a year ago. With Peat back and playing inspired basketball, Burries reaching his stride and Bradley holding it all together, it’s going to take a championship-worthy effort to challenge Arizona this month. Houston certainly could win this, but it’s hard to fight back on the fact that it’s simply the Wildcats’ year to reign supreme in the conference.
Pick: Arizona
Editor’s Pick
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