ATP Tour 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Draw Preview and Analysis
Complaints about the length of the tennis season is the cause du jour, but the final ATP 1000 of the year, the Rolex Paris Masters draw preview and analysis, has provided plenty of buttery popcorn to justify itself. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have kindly made themselves available for this tournament, though Novak Djokovic opted not to play.
Perhaps most intriguingly, Joao Fonseca drew an opening round match with Denis Shapovalov, who just controversially retired from a match with the Brazilian phenom mere points from apparent defeat. Punishment served up cold for the temperamental Canadian.
Elsewhere the Shanghai cousin sensations, Valentin Vacherot and Arthur Rinderknech, received wildcards to the Rolex Paris Masters– and ended up with a potential Round 2 rematch. It’s getting hot indoors.
To the Rolex Paris Masters draw preview and analysis.
Carlos Alcaraz Quarter
We last saw Alcaraz on tour when he beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets to win the Japan Open on a bum ankle. He withdrew from Shanghai but played the Six Kings exhibition and competed well. Unless the peroxide fumes from Alcaraz’s hair dye are going to his head, he appears fit and content as ever.
The cousins are in this section of the draw. Since Carlitos has a 4-0 head-to-head against Rinderknech, it might be fun to see Shanghai champ Vacherot have a crack at Alcaraz. But there’s a problem with that scenario, and the problem is Jiri Lehecka. With his consistent flat groundstrokes, I don’t see the Czech losing to either of those cousins. He just refuses to miss. Vacherot might be feeling a modicum of pressure having been gifted two consecutive wild cards and losing his opening round to Fritz last week.
Alcaraz has so many more weapons than Lehecka. If Carlos wins that potential matchup, he could face Felix Auger Aliassime or Casper Ruud, both of whom have shown returns to form but retired from matches in Basel with injury. Obviously, advantage Alcaraz.
Rolex Paris Masters Draw Preview and Analysis: Taylor Fritz
After slogging through a trench war against Vacherot in his opening round of Basel, Fritz was gassed against indoor specialist Ugo Humbert. I envision the game competitor serving his way through until he meets Alexander Bublik, this season’s most entertaining enigma.
The Fritz Bublick H2H is 3-3, with Taylor taking the last 3 straight. Both players are sublime servers and exceptionally heady players. This would be one I’d plan my day around. If I’m mini-previewing this, it’s a tough call. Fritz has the Top 5 ranking, which he has earned. But Sascha is more rested, having played 19 fewer singles matches this year. Digging into the serving numbers– and the rallies indoors are very short– Taylor’s second serve is just better. 54% 2nd serve points won vs. 47% for Bublik. In addition, Bublik’s creativity and shotmaking is something that wouldn’t tend to bother Fritz, who’s seen it all. In fact, it’s the kind of thing that I think would only inspire Fritz to buckle down mentally.
Where I see trouble for Taylor is in a potential quarterfinal against Alex De Minaur. That’s a beautiful contrast of styles and another toss-up, but I suspect Demon is just slightly fresher at the moment.
This quarter also features the aforementioned Fonseca vs Shapo rematch. Denis is tight as a drum at the moment, while Joao is playing rested, young and free. From a matchup standpoint, Fonseca’s crushing cross court forehand to Shapovalov’s one-handed backhand is less than ideal for the Canadian.
Zverev Quarter
Alexander Zverev has drawn the easiest quarter in my opinion, due mainly to some clay courters and some one-handed backhands. How Daniil Medvedev will play or the mood he’ll be in is anyone’s guess. He could face the returning Grigor Dimitrov or Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
Ultimately, I have Alex facing Lorenzo Musetti in the quarters. As of this writing, the Italian has a 3-1 H2H vs Zverev, but 3 of those matches have been on clay. They met in Vienna last year, and Musetti outlasted Sascha in a close 3-set affair. They meet in Vienna again this year, with the outcome to be determined. I have Zverev coming though based upon serve and backhand prowess.
Ugo Humbert lands in this quarter where he faces a tough opening test against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The lefty Frenchman holds 4 indoor titles and could be a dark horse to sneak through here in his home country if he can get through ADF. Not so easy.
Rolex Paris Masters Draw Preview: Jannik Sinner
Without heat, wind, sun or fluffed up tennis balls, Sinner excels in his indoor happy place. He doesn’t have to worry about the variety he’s working on in these conditions. He can simply hit every player in this section off the court. That includes Ben Shelton, who is still getting his legs back after returning from a shoulder injury at the US Open.
In fact, I have Flavio Cobolli over Shelton in a rivalry rematch of their testy encounter in Canada. When these guys do battle, it’s always physical and close. Perhaps controversially, I have Learner Tien getting through an uneven Andrey Rublev and then Cobolli. The American craftsman plays a brand of tennis that’s unsettling, even indoors. That said, Sinner can hit through just about anything at this point.
My players to watch coming through
QF: Alcaraz, De Minaur, Zverev, Sinner
SF: Alcaraz, Sinner
F: Sinner
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