It’s very rare that you get rubber matches in the NFL, but that is exactly what is on the docket for the NFC Championship Game on Sunday between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks.
The Rams and Seahawks played two of the best games of the year in their NFC West home-and-home this season, with each team coming out on top on their home field. Back in Week 11, the Rams picked off Sam Darnold four times and Jason Myers missed a long field goal as time expired as Los Angeles walked away with a 21-19 win.
Just over a month later in Week 16, the two heavyweights played one of the games of the year on Thursday Night Football, as the Seahawks overcame a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter to get a 38-37 overtime win. It will be the Seahawks who get this game at home after securing the No. 1 seed and demolishing the 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round. On the other side, the Rams have squeaked out a pair of three-point wins on the road against the Panthers and Bears.
All four units in this game are elite, which is to be expected coming into a championship game. However, the Seahawks defense and the Rams offense are arguably the two best units in football and have been for a lot of this season. So, who has the edge when Los Angeles has the ball on Sunday?
Can the Rams run the ball on Seattle’s front?
Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams get a lot of the buzz for this Rams offense in the passing game, but this group is at its best when the running game is clicking on all cylinders. Sean McVay and company have done that effectively for much of the year, finishing with a top five rushing attack in terms of both EPA per rush and rushing success rate.
Los Angeles had mixed results on the ground against the Seattle defense in their two meetings, which is better than a lot of other offenses have fared. In the Week 11, game, it was a bit of a boom-or-bust endeavor for the Rams, who were stuffed for one yard or less on more than 30% of their carries. However, Los Angeles still ran for 119 yards on 22 carries and generated positive EPA for the day on the ground.
The Week 16 meeting was a tale of two halves for the Rams on the ground, as LA bludgeoned Seattle on the ground early on before faltering in the second half, allowing the Seahawks to pull off that epic comeback. For the day, the Rams finished with 124 yards on 39 carries, but Seattle seemed to start winning that battle up front as the game went on.
One of the ways that the Rams had success running the ball in that game was to put more tight ends on the field. Davante Adams didn’t play in that Week 16 game, leaving McVay with little wiggle room in terms of personnel, but running the ball out of 12 and 13 personnel was something that the Rams found some success with.
One of the major things that has made the Seahawks’ defense so great this season is their ability to stop the run without going into base personnel. Rookie nickel Nick Emmanwori has been a revelation in the slot this season, and has allowed the Seahawks to have the best run defense in the NFL despite always having five defensive backs on the field.
However, the Rams have been able to exploit that by putting more tight ends on the field. That is one of the major chess matches to watch on Sunday, and it will go a long way toward deciding who makes it to the Super Bowl.
Matthew Stafford torched the Seattle secondary in Week 16
Matt Marton-Imagn Images
While it’s been extremely hard to run the ball against the Seahawks, most quarterbacks have not had success against Seattle’s secondary throwing the ball either. Stafford is not one of those quarterbacks, especially after he torched the Seattle defense in Week 16.
Stafford finished that game with 457 yards, the second-most single-game total of any quarterback this season, and three touchdowns despite the loss. He constantly gashed the Seahawks in the intermediate area of the field on in-breakers, which is one of the things that the Seahawks excel at stopping. Puka Nacua was the frequent target, especially with Adams sidelined in that game, with 225 yards receiving.
In truth, the Seahawks didn’t have any sort of systemic issue on that night. Stafford just had an insane day throwing the ball into tight windows, using his eyes to manipulate the linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field and getting those big gains. He is one of the few quarterbacks both talented and experienced enough to do that, and he had his best game of the season that day.
The Week 11 game is an example of what can happen if Stafford isn’t on his A+ game against this Seattle defense. In that game, Stafford finished just 15-for-28 with 130 yards and two touchdowns. His negative-0.36 EPA per dropback on that day was by far his worst day of the season, despite throwing no interceptions and taking no sacks.
The Seahawks excel at shrinking the windows over the middle of the field, and Seattle should be locked in from a gameplan perspective considering it has had an extra day to prepare after a Saturday Divisional Round game. Stafford is good enough to be the trump card in this matchup between two heavyweight units, but he will have to play his best game of the year for this passing game to get going against the red-hot Seahawks defense.
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