The New England Patriots have been one of the best stories of the 2025 NFL season. New England is dominating in Mike Vrabel’s first season as head coach, going on a 10-game winning streak that ended in Week 15. Now the Patriots are 11-3 heading into Week 16 and look destined to make the playoffs.
According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, New England is virtually guaranteed a playoff berth. Even if they lose their final three games of the regular season, they still have incredibly strong odds to make the postseason.
But that shouldn’t make the Patriots feel complacent. After all, playoff seeding is incredibly important in the NFL. The Patriots could easily lose ground to the Bills in the AFC East and lose out on a division title. They would lose home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs along with that.
So how bad could things get for the Patriots during the rest of the regular season?
Below we will explore New England’s nightmare scenario over the last three weeks of the regular season.
The first step is the Patriots losing to Ravens in Week 16
The theme for this nightmare scenario will be other AFC powers winning out, while the Patriots lose three games in a row.
That is the worst possible scenario for New England because it will give them the lowest playoff seed possible.
All of this starts by the Patriots losing to the Ravens this weekend. Lamar Jackson is on his usual practice regimen, which suggests he’ll play on Sunday. If he returns to some semblance of his old explosive self, the Ravens could easily pull off the upset.
If the Bills beat the Browns on Sunday, they’ll improve to 11-4 and be tied with the Patriots in terms of record. But they won’t jump them in the AFC East standings (yet).
Other outcomes that could hurt the Patriots in Week 16 include the Chargers beating the Cowboys and the Texans beating the Raiders.
All three of those outcomes (outside of New England’s upset loss) are strong possibilities.
That means this nightmare could easily be set into motion this weekend…
How could the Patriots lose to the Jets in Week 17?
…but even if it does, the Patriots could easily correct the situation in Week 17.
In this nightmare scenario, the Patriots somehow find a way to lose to the Jets in Week 17. That outcome, paired with the Bills beating the Eagles, would see the Patriots lose their position at the top of the AFC East standings.
This is easily the part of the nightmare scenario that feels the most impossible. New York has nothing to play for and has resorted to playing Brady Cook at quarterback.
But for our purposes, we’ll assume that New York pulls off the huge upset.
Another important Week 17 matchup is the Texans beating the Chargers. Either team winning is bad for New England, but in the grand scheme of things Houston prevailing is worse.
Two more likely outcomes include the Broncos beating the Mahomes-less Chiefs and the Jaguars taking care of the Colts.
Aside from the Jets part, this nightmare scenario could easily take place.
New England caps off nightmare with loss to Dolphins in Week 18
In the final week of the regular season, New England also has to lose to Miami to fully realize this nightmare.
That would put the Patriots at 11-6, ending the season on a four-game losing streak after their lengthy winning streak.
The only other games that will matter for the Patriots in Week 18 are Bills vs. Jets and Jaguars vs. Titans.
Of course the Patriots will be rooting for the Jets and Titans, but those are two of the worst teams to be counting on this year.
Week 18 wins for Buffalo and Jacksonville are the final nails in the coffin for New England.
How far could the Patriots fall in this nightmare scenario?
So how bad does this nightmare scenario end up being for New England?
In this scenario, the Patriots still make the playoffs but as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. The Jaguars, Texans, and Chargers all finish with 12-5 records and squeak past the Patriots.
The Bills win the AFC East at 13-4 and become the No. 2 seed. That’s relevant for New England because it means they’re destined for a trip to Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs.
Personally, I think every AFC team would agree that a road game in Buffalo is a terrible outcome in 2025. Denver would also be a bad draw, but they earn the No. 1 seed and a bye in this scenario.
The Patriots could still make some noise in the playoffs as road warriors. But that is much easier said than done.
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