US Open Draw 2025: Men’s and Women’s Draw Preview and Analysis
Outside the giant New Two of tennis– Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz– a pack of Americans has a major open window in the 2025 US Open Draw Preview and Analysis. Meanwhile defending champion Aryna Sabalenka looks to confront her year of phantoms and ghosts.
New York. There’s nothing like it. It’s where reinvention happens, and the new US Open Mixed Doubles allowed for a unique early peek at the playing form of the sport’s elite. Jack Draper– while he didn’t volley up to some fans’ high standards– looked healthy. Iga Swiatek looked in command of her forehand. 24-time Grand Slam Champion Novak Djokovic didn’t appear to be struggling with a knee problem, as some unfounded rumors suggested.
Coco Gauff is in the middle of a revamp of her own as she hit the US Open practice courts with a new coach looking to solve her serve problems. Everything’s in motion.
To the US Open 2025 Draw Preview
Jannik Sinner (ITA) celebrates as he defeats Taylor Fritz (USA) in the final of the Men’s Singles at the 2024 US Open in the Arthur Ashe Stadium
Jannik Sinner: Is He Healthy?
After retiring early with illness from his latest tilt against Carlos Alcaraz in last week’s Cincinnati final, Sinner is recovering. Coach Darren Cahill told news outlets that Sinner had a virus. Expect him to come out energetic when he feels the weight of nausea lifting.
In Round 2, Sinner could face Alexei Popyrin, who oddly has a 1-0 head-to-head against him, but that lone meeting was Madrid 2021. Different player. My forecast has the Italian facing Yunchaokete Bu and American Tommy Paul before facing Draper in the quarters. Despite Paul taking an occasional set off Sinner, I see Jannik sailing until the Draper match. Paul has battled too many injuries.
Jannik beat Jack easily in the semifinals of last year’s US Open, and Jack’s match fitness hasn’t been built these past few months. Maybe this fall, but not now.
Circle this early first-round popcorn match: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. It’s a battle of one-handed backhands, but the bigger server can exploit that more on a hard court. I pick Gio.
2025 US Open Draw Preview and Analysis: Alexander Zverev
The 3-seed Alexander Zverev has never had a better opportunity to buzz through an easy quarter. He’s got a few older, out-of-form fellows in Gael Monfils and Roberto Bautista Agut in this area of the draw. No big. The cooler temps should suit Sascha.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is severely out of form, and to have the Greek as a seeded player in this section removes an obstacle. Andrey Rublev is typically good for a quarterfinal appearance, but Alex has a 7-3 record against the ginger.
Interesting note: I could see a potential Round 3 match between Karen Khachanov and Francisco Cerundolo, but the head-to-head there is a whopping 7-0 in the Russian’s favor. Yet another likely hurdle knocked out.
Zverev’s only sweat could come against 8-seeded energizer bunny Alex De Minaur. For some reason, Demon’s game does not match up well against Sascha’s– although the 8-2 head-to-head is rich with clay. If it comes down to Zverev vs De Minaur, that’s a very tough call. 5 sets seems inevitable. I’m going to reluctantly favor the Australian based on a feeling that Zverev could be looking ahead to Sinner, who haunts him. Demon’s ability to keep the ball low and skidding doesn’t match up well with Zverev’s current forehand challenges– at least on a hard court.
Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz
Last year’s US Open runner up Taylor Fritz presides over his own section as a four seed. He was unlucky to draw Novak Djokovic in his quarter, but if he’s looking for his first-ever win against the GOAT, this might be the time. Djokovic hasn’t played a singles match since Wimbledon, and he’s drawn a bevy of young legs.
In Round 1, Novak faces American Learner Tien. The 19-year-old lefty has the swagger of a kid who doesn’t know any better. If Novak gets through that match, he will have run. That said, Learner has had a grueling year touring the world. He’s probably a bit tapped. Novak it is.
Also in the Djokovic bracket: Alex Michelsen, Holger Rune and Francis Tiafoe. Big Foe has struggled with a back problem but always seems to thrive in Flushing Meadow. I have Tiafoe getting the better of Djokovic in 5 brutal sets due to the grind of Novak’s draw.
Here’s where Fritz could clean up. After some breezy early matchups, he’s got a few potential big servers which isn’t particularly taxing from an energy standpoint. Fritz seems to out-strategize those who are most like himself. If he ends up facing Djokovic in the quarters, now is the time to grab a first win over a 38-year-old, who has beaten him 10 times.
Popcorn with extra butter: Joao Fonseca vs Miomir Kecmanovic in Round 1. I like Joao’s all-court-ish-ness over Kec’s baseline prowess. But it’s close.
2025 US Open Draw Preview and Analysis: Carlos Alcaraz
Once again, Alcaraz appears to have managed his hardcourt lead up schedule to perfection. Skipping Canada and gliding to victory in Cincinnati, Alcaraz is fresh, joyful and bringing the tennis rizz. The stunning court coverage and anticipation skills of the Spaniard dazzled the crowd in his mixed match as he tornado’d around partner Emma Raducanu. He’s fit.
And finally, American dynamo Ben Shelton has emerged as a legitimate Grand Slam contender after winning Canada. He might need to get through Casper Ruud. The H2H there is 2-1 to the Norwegian. After seeing Casper spray his forehand in the mixed, I’m skittish about picking him. I’ll give the lefty home field advantage and see him meeting Alcaraz in the quarters. Ben’s return game is inferior to Carlitos’s at this moment. If it comes down to a handful of points, Carlos will find the court one more time.
My players to watch:
QF: Sinner, De Minaur, Fritz, Alcaraz
SF: Sinner, Alcaraz
F: Alcaraz
Iga Swiatek (POL) playing against Kamilla Rakhimova in the first round of the Women’s Singles at the Arthur Ashe Stadium at the US Open.
US Open Draw Preview: Aryna Sabelenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff
World number one Aryna Sabalenka has enjoyed a solid year but has not added to her Grand Slam tally of 3. The Americans Madison Keys and Coco Gauff have swiped them, and her old rival Iga Swiatek completely turned around her lackluster season by winning Wimbledon and then Cincinnati. Bad timing for the Belarusian.
Sabalenka has the misfortune of having drawn Elena Rybakina in her quarter. Elena just zipped past her in Cincy. She also might have to contend with Jasmine Paolini whose court coverage is daunting as ever. I still like Sabalenka to come through because she’s proven she knows how to reel in her errors. But she’ll be damaged from the fight.
The other major storyline of this US Open draw preview involves Gauff making a coaching change days before this championship. The tennis world has scoffed at attempting to make technical changes on the eve of a Slam, but if anyone is nonplussed enough to take that on, it’s Gauff. The American doesn’t rely on technique much to win anyway, so what difference does it make? She relies on grit.
For her part, Swiatek is bathing in confidence. I like the way she traded groundstrokes with men in the mixed doubles. It must feel good to engage in baseline rallies with the likes of Draper and draw errors.
My players to watch:
QF: Sabalenka, Pegula, Gauff, Swiatek
SF: Sabalenka, Swiatek
F: Swiatek
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