Las Vegas Raiders fans are excited about their new quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, after the Raiders selected him No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. NFL people like him, too, and now it’s time to make some bold predictions for Mendoza’s rookie season.
The former Indiana University quarterback brings a game that NFL scouts have raved about. He’s a Year 1 starter, according to NFL.com.
“Mendoza is a precision-based pocket passer whose game is built on rare accuracy and steady command in high-leverage moments,” Lance Zierlein wrote. “Mechanically sound and intensely accurate, Mendoza is fearless in attacking pre- and post-snap reads. He can feather throws into deep windows or between levels.”
QB Fernando Mendoza will throw for fewer than 23 TDs
That may seem to some folks like a low number. But consider that 23 touchdown passes would put Mendoza in the top-10 all-time among rookie quarterbacks.
Also, you have to consider opportunities. The Raiders currently have Kirk Cousins listed as their starting quarterback. Of course, Mendoza will take over at some point. But it seems like that Cousins will be the Week 1 starter. This will limit the number of passing attempts for Mendoza in 2026.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert set the rookie record with 31 touchdown passes in 2020, but he had 595 passing attempts. Only Andrew Luck (23 TDs) and Derek Carr (21 TDs) had more in their rookie seasons among the top 25 players on this list.
It’s unknown at this point how many starts Mendoza will get. It may depend on what the team’s early-season record is. However, if Mendoza excels in the preseason and gets a Week 1 start, 23 touchdowns would be within reach if he hangs around for all 17 games.
One scout compared him to Peyton Manning, according to ESPN.
“His football IQ is so high,” says Mike Giddings, owner of Proscout Inc., which has worked with 39 Super Bowl teams in its decades of scouting. “Whether it’s, ‘Oh, he’s got him beat. Throw it out in front of him.’ Or, ‘Oh, he’s got him covered, I’m going to back-shoulder it.’ To me, that’s Peyton-like.”
But still, Manning threw 575 passes as a rookie and totaled only 26 touchdowns. And the scout said, “Peyton-like” and not “the next Peyton.”
Fernando Mendoza will take a ton of sacks
The NFL player who holds the record for most times sacked as a rookie is David Carr, who got taken to the turf 76 times in 2002. Mendoza won’t get clobbered that often, but he will go down.
Why? He’s sturdy, but not mobile or quick.
“Mendoza is big and tough but moves around the pocket with heavy shoes and limited escapability, which could invite excessive hits on Sundays,” Zierlein wrote. “He can make life easier on his receivers and his play-caller, but above-average pass protection feels like a non-negotiable.”
The Raiders had the worst offensive line in the NFL last season, and they didn’t have many challengers for that unwanted title.
Yes, the Raiders have revamped their line for 2026. They added Tyler Linderbaum at center to anchor the middle of the line. They are expected to look for more help along the line during the draft, according to atozsports.com.
“In terms of the draft this year, I’m happy that we added the guys we did, but I’ve never been anywhere where you feel like you’ve got too many offensive linemen,” Raiders GM John Spytek said. “They’re such a hard position to acquire, whether it’s in the draft, it’s almost impossible in free agency, it feels like, especially at certain positions.
“And just because we’ve added certain guys through free agency doesn’t mean that we won’t be looking for offensive linemen, too. I’m on record of saying they’re sexy as hell, and I stand by that.”
But with the current instability and Mendoza’s lack of mobility, the sacks are coming.
Fernando Mendoza won’t finish with a winning record
There are too many variables working against him. The team’s expected win total is 5.5, according to ESPN.
So if Mendoza starts more than 10 games, he’s going to struggle to post a winning record.
Look at the bottom line. If he starts all 17 games, he has to go 9-8. For 10 starts, he would need to go 6-4. Those numbers just don’t seem to fit for a team that simply doesn’t have a winning roster for the 2026 season.
Fernando Mendoza will get Rookie of the Year votes
But it’s position-related. Quarterbacks always get offensive Rookie of the Year votes if they do anything.
Consider Tyler Shough of the Saints last year. He started nine games and had 10 touchdown passes with six interceptions and three rushing scores. Not a big wow, but he still finished second.
Drake Maye had 15 TD passes and 10 picks as a rookie in 2024. He got votes. Kenny Pickett totaled seven touchdown passes with nine interceptions. He finished sixth.
Yes, it’s a low bar, but Fernando Mendoza will play enough to get there.
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