2026 ATP Predictions and Projected Top 10
The tennis calendar is quiet (ish), and it’s the most perfect time of the year for the 2026 ATP Predictions and Projected Top 10. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner secured their 2-man show under the big top of tennis in 2025. Novak Djokovic continued to show why he’s the GOAT. A few next-wave talents like Joao Fonseca and Ben Shelton vaulted toward their ascent, but it’s unclear if they will ultimately hang with Sincaraz.
First let’s take a peek at how I did with this past year’s predictions.
What I Got Wrong
When will I stop selling Djokovic short? (That’s a joke. I’m that fan who always secretly thinks Novak will win every tournament he enters.) But I worried that injury would keep him from the Top 5, so I placed him at 9. I’ve never been happier to underestimate, with Djokovic finishing at 4– this despite a shortened schedule and not even playing the points-heavy ATP Finals. That’s some achievement. Keep going, GOAT.
Conversely, I didn’t see a young guy like Arthur Fils missing half the season. After two years of hoping for a breakout from the talented Frenchman, I’ll need to drop him this year because his return from injury isn’t currently known.
Casper Ruud has made some life balance decisions and didn’t make the ATP Top 10 as I’d predicted, Giovanni Mpteshi Perricard’s shortcomings have been crystallized, and Daniil Medvedev continued to slide. Otherwise, I correctly predicted the names in this group.
Side note: In my “other predictions” category, I thought the tours would not fix the ball situation, but give ‘em credit– they’re working on ball homogenization.
I have to tell you: I nailed so much. It’s kind of eerie. Let’s have a look.
What I Predicted Correctly
I had Sinner and Alcaraz 1 and 2. Not exactly a bold pick, but I still had to show up with that. Those two are so close in ability and so far above everyone else at this point. They are essentially interchangeable.
I picked Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton to finish in the Top 10. Check, check, check. I did not pick Jack Draper, unlike most pundits, and even though he barely climbed into the Top 10 by virtue of his win at Indian Wells, I stand by the shakiness of this.
Where my crystal ball really shined was in my “other predictions” for the ATP Tour. Check it out. I wrote:
“Gabriel Diallo will make big strides and give Canada big hope for the future.” Diallo, 24, achieved a career-high ranking of 33, enjoyed a season of firsts including main draw matches won at Slams and his first ATP title at the 2025 Libéma Open. I was correct.
“American men’s tennis will enjoy a renaissance in both rankings and quality not seen in decades.” In June Shelton jumped into the Top 10. That gave the US three men there at the same time— including Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul. It was the first time this has happened in 20 years. Teenager Learner Tien also busted out, finishing the year 28 in the world. What a rise.
“A player in his 20s will unofficially retire, while a player in his 30s who is expected to retire will not.” Chris Eubanks, 29, just announced he will step back from tennis to focus on broadcasting but leaves the door slightly open that he could compete again. I think it’s safe to say many thought Djokovic would retire, and he has said he has so plans to do so. Also Grigor Dimitrov. Also Jan-Lennard Struff.
“A tennis power couple will get engaged. (That could include 2 players and/or a player and a tennis influencer.)” I nailed this twice. Tommy Paul got engaged to his influencer girlfriend, and Alex de Minaur popped the question to Katie Boulter. Taylor Fritz, you’re on deck.
2026 ATP Projected Top 10
I’m going to need everyone to buckle their seatbelts because I’ve taken some controversial picks here.
Carlos Alcaraz
Jannik Sinner
Alex de Minaur
Ben Shelton
Taylor Fritz
Alexander Zverev
Novak Djokovic
Jack Draper
Joao Fonseca
Learner Tien
I have Alcaraz first because I worry ever-so-slightly about Sinner’s ability to stay injury-free when he doesn’t have 3 months off in the grind of the Sunshine Double like he did this year. I also very much admire Alcaraz’s variety and adaptability.
My boldest move is to place de Minaur at three. Covering Laver Cup this year and having had the pleasure of both watching de Minaur’s game up close and discussing finer points directly with him in press, I feel I have a fresh understanding of how and why he “works” on a tennis court. Ditto his strengths as a human being. Underrated doesn’t even begin to describe this player. Three is probably ambitious, but I’m trying to get a rise out of fans and wake them up to the importance of speed and court craft in the sport of tennis.
I believe Shelton’s game is far from its plateau. He’s only 23. Fritz still won’t come to the net and will stubbornly serve his way back into the Top 5, despite the protests of all of us. Zverev will continue to work on his mental blocks.
I believe Djokovic will have a similar season that he had this year. If he says he’s not ready to retire, let’s listen to the man and enjoy him. Similarly, I think Draper will win in bursts.
Finally, I’ve left room for my young guns. Those next gen dudes will become now gen. Fonseca is real. His all-court game is legit, and his team is making all the right moves to keep him grounded and scheduled properly. Temperament cannot be taught. The same can be said for Tien, the quietly cocky left-handed American. This kid has the goods and will show the world power tennis isn’t the only way to play, as if Djokovic hasn’t taught us that already with his understanding and use of the entire court.
Other 2026 ATP Predictions
Someone other than Alcaraz and Sinner will win a Grand Slam.
The ATP will make a significant change in the area of calendar reform.
The PTPA will prove the naysayers wrong by helping enact reform that will benefit the players.
The other Grand Slams will attempt to boost mixed doubles in some way, as the US Open did with its smash hit this year.
Alcaraz will experience growing pains with regard to his personal life (and personal time) but will work through it with the help of his team.
Some young player that isn’t on fans’ radars will emerge, and this player will have an aspect to his game that is very unusual.
The topics of betting, gambling and prop bets will continue to reach fervent discussion in the sport, with calls for meaningful changes in this area.
Pickleball will experience a plateau, padel will steeply rise and tennis will continue to experience steady growth in popularity.
Happy holidays, and I wish each and every one of my readers happiness and peace.
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