The West looks a bit different this season, but the one thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder are decisive frontrunners to earn the conference’s NBA Finals berth after their classic series last season.
Victor Wembanyama and teammates celebrate after beating the Thunder in the 2026 WCF. Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are entering a new era with the addition of LaMelo Ball alongside Anthony Edwards, and the Los Angeles Lakers are entering a new era as they prepare for their first season without LeBron James since 2017-18.
Will the Spurs return to the Finals after their disappointing shortcoming against the New York Knicks in June? Or will the Thunder prove that injuries really were the reason they fell so narrowly short against Victor Wembanyama and company in the Western Conference Finals. Could it be the season Minnesota finally gets over the hump? Can Nikola Jokic lead a deteriorating supporting cast back to the biggest stage? Or will Kevin Durant turn back the clock one more time to deliver the Houston Rockets their first Finals appearance since 1995? Let’s break it down and find out.
Predicted Western Conference Standings
(1) San Antonio Spurs – 63-19
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder – 61-21
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves – 50-32
(4) Los Angeles Lakers – 49-33
(5) Houston Rockets – 48-34
(6) Denver Nuggets – 46-36
Play-In
(7) Portland Trail Blazers – 44-38
(8) Phoenix Suns – 42-40
(9) Dallas Mavericks – 37-45
(10) Golden State Warriors 36-46
Lottery
(11) Memphis Grizzlies – 30-52
(12) Utah Jazz – 27-55
(13) Los Angeles Clippers – 22-60
(14) New Orleans Pelicans – 21-61
(15) Sacramento Kings – 18-64
Play-In
(7) Portland TrailBlazers def (8) Phoenix Suns (TrailBlazers advance as No. 7 seed)
Dillon Brooks’ defensive prowess and general peskiness combined with Devin Booker’s offensive consistency make Phoenix and interesting matchup in a postseason scenario, but I have a lot of faith that this TrailBlazers team will be even more impressive than they were during their surprise campaign a season ago. Damian Lillard’s presence in the lineup will be beneficial for first-time head coach Micah Nori as he navigates big game preparation, and I get the strange feeling that we’re going to see a resurgence from Ja Morant, who has proven he can be a playoff riser when he’s on the money. Add those guys to a well-rounded rotation that already includes an All-Star in Deni Avdija, one of the league’s best defenders in Toumani Camara and one of the league’s most promising emerging centers in Donovan Clingan and you have a team that has the potential for a promising run.
(10) Golden State Warriors def Dallas Mavericks (Warriors face Suns, Mavericks eliminated)
Stephen Curry. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
As tumultuous as I expect this season to be for the Warriors, at the end of the day I refuse to pick against Stephen Curry in a one-game playoff scenario. That will of refusal is only strengthened by the fact this Mavericks team, aside from Kyrie Irving, is largely devoid of meaningful playoff experience. Add in the fact that playoff legend Jimmy Butler should be fully back to himself after his ACL tear, I think the Warriors can at least somewhat salvage their season by sneaking into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. Maybe.
(8) Phoenix Suns def (10) Golden State Warriors (Suns advance, Warriors eliminated)
Yeah, just kidding about the Warriors sneaking into the playoffs. If there’s one player who’s successfully gotten under the organization’s skin through the years, it’s Brooks, and the Suns proved they can handle what Curry and company throws at them in the postseason with a 111-96 win to advance out of last season’s Play-In Tournament. Months later, the Warriors have added exactly nothing of substance this offseason that I can comfortably say would change last year’s outcome. The Suns have a roster that’s built to be the No. 8 seed, and that’s exactly what they’ll be.
First Round
(1) San Antonio Spurs def. (8) Phoenix Suns, 4-0
Let’s not overthink this one too much. If the Suns were built to be a No. 8 seed, the Spurs are built to be a dynasty. Not only do the Suns not have an answer for the Spurs’ extraterrestrial being they call Wemby, they won’t have an answer for the version of Dylan Harper we’re about to see either. Or Stephon Castle. They certainly can’t match the Spurs’ depth.
Of all the first round matchups across the NBA this upcoming season, this will be the most lopsided and it’s going to start some interesting conversations about where this Spurs team can end up historically if they continue to dominate in such a fashion. Kind of like the conversations we had about the Thunder last year, until the Thunder ran out of gas and lost to the Spurs…
(4) Los Angeles Lakers def (5) Houston Rockets, 4-3
This rematch of last year’s opening round series, which the Lakers won in six games, will go all the way to a decisive Game 7 this time around. In that Game 7, Luka Doncic will answer the call and deliver his first truly classic playoff performance as a Laker by posting a 40-point triple-double in a contest that’s decided late in the fourth quarter.
Even if it doesn’t come down to Doncic, I trust Reaves to get a bucket in a crucial late game situation more than anyone on the Rockets besides KD. I also expect the Lakers’ version of Batman and Robin to have a massive chip on their shoulder entering this series, because I already know the entire NBA media and fan landscape will be questioning what they can accomplish without LeBron.
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves def (6) Denver Nuggets, 4-1
Nikola Jokic fouls Anthony Edwards in the 2026 playoffs. Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post.
In another rematch from last season’s first round, it will take the new-look Minnesota Timberwolves one fewer game to send Nikola Jokic back to the horse stables for the summer. Rudy Gobert proved in that series that he’s arguably the most effective foil to Jokic in the league, giving basketball’s version of a “Final Boss” all he could handle en route to the Timberwolves’ six-game triumph a year ago.
The Nuggets roster only got weaker this offseason, while the Timberwolves added another star to the roster in LaMelo Ball. The only reason I can’t call this a sweep is because I simply can’t discount Jokic’s ability to pull even the most questionable of rosters to at least one win in any playoff series.
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder def. (7) Portland TrailBlazers, 4-2
I don’t think the Thunder will ever truly be in danger in this series, but the TrailBlazers can make it more interesting than most casuals would expect. For a game or two at least. I see Portland taking two of the first four games to drum up the slightest bit of hope that an upset could be brewing, just for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his crew of Oklahoma City heartbreakers to end it on Portland’s home floor with a decisive blowout in Game 6 that makes you question what exactly went wrong in the two games OKC lost.
Crystal ball aside, the Thunder just have too many weapons, even for a team with Portland’s depth, and eventually the Blazers are going to be overpowered. Maybe we’ll get a vintage Dame Time moment for one of those Portland wins, though, like the time he sent the Thunder home with his “bad shot” over Paul George in 2019.
Second Round
(1) San Antonio Spurs def (4) Los Angeles Lakers, 4-0
Honestly, the Lakers just don’t have enough firepower to legitimately contend in this series. It would require a gargantuan effort from both Doncic and Reaves to win even two games, much less four. Just like the first round, Wembanyama and the Spurs will win in a decisive sweep that pushes their record to 8-0 to start the postseason and sends them to their second straight Western Conference Finals.
At this point, the Spurs will start being talked about as if they’re the 2001 Lakers because of how dominant this postseason run is starting to become. However, neither the Suns nor Lakers are equipped to be a serious championship threat and sweeping them will look far more impressive on paper than it is in reality. Regardless of who they face in the Conference FInals, the increase in difficulty will be immense.
(2) OKC Thunder def (3) Minnesota Timberwolves, 4-2
The addition of LaMelo Ball certainly makes this a more challenging matchup for the Thunder than it was during the 2025 Western Conference Finals, which was a decisive gentleman’s sweep that sent OKC back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012. The presence of Rudy Gobert defensively also tends to complicate things, as does the clutch-time elevation we see out of an already generational player in Anthony Edwards.
With that being said, the Oklahoma City Thunder are simply on a different level when they have all of their troops. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among very exclusive and elite company when it pertains to the conversation of the greatest and most consistent scorers in the history of basketball, and Jalen Williams is one of the most effective sidekicks we’ve seen in a generation. Ajay Mitchell’s emergence as an elite scorer down the stretch last season added another layer for this already loaded team, and the swiss-army knife capabilities of Cason Wallace raise the ceiling even further. It will be hard fought, but the Thunder take their second straight series in six games to start the postseason.
Conference Finals
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder def (1) San Antonio Spurs, 4-3
Wemby and SGA during Game 7. Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/Getty Images.
This is it. The most anticipated rematch in a bracket defined by them. We knew the first meeting between these powerhouses last postseason was the start of a rivalry that could define the next decade of Western Conference hoops, so it only makes sense we at least get it a second time.
Because of the Thunder’s unpopular playstyle, there was a near-unanimous celebration from the league’s 29 other fanbases when the antagonists were eliminated by the upstart Spurs. But the dirty secret behind that series I’ve often seen glossed over is just how depleted the Thunder were, having to play without both Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell down the stretch, who are their second and arguably third most important offensive contributors. By the time Game 7 came around, the only player left who could be trusted to score consistently was SGA, and he simply didn’t have enough gas left to win the series alone.
Presuming Williams and Mitchell aren’t dealing with injuries again when the redux of this series comes around, I expect it to end a bit differently. I still think it will go seven games because of the experience and motivation the Spurs gained from last year’s NBA Finals shortcoming, as well as the team’s natural development in general, but I think everyone has been way too quick to write off the Thunder after what I would argue was a much closer series than it should have been last season with their health concerns. It was framed as an upset when the Spurs won because of their age and inexperience, SGA almost leading a wounded Thunder group over that monster lineup last season makes me confident he can get back over the hump with a healthy one.
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