2025 ATP Finals Draw Preview and Analysis
The ATP Finals draw preview and analysis has arrived, with Novak Djokovic withdrawing after a long match to beat Lorenzo Musetti for the title in Athens. That match gave Felix Auger Aliassime the 8th slot at the ATP Finals. Djokovic’s withdrawal gives Musetti a spot as the alternate.
This year-ending spectacle of the top 8 could also be dubbed the rich get richer event because of the massive load of points and money to be lavished on these players. An undefeated ATP Finals champion could take home over $5 million dollars and 1,500 ATP rankings points. It can make life on tour much more comfortable and palatable. The millions allow for private air travel, and the cushion of points means they won’t need to play as often as the tour plebians.
ATP Finals Court Speed
Let’s address the conditions. Players practicing this week seem to indicate the court speed of the indoor surface in Turin is medium fast, in line with last year, and faster than the Paris Masters. Dunlop provides the balls for this event, and while Taylor Fritz and other players have complained that some batches of the Dunlop balls can fuzz up very quickly in humid conditions, that won’t be a problem indoors. The Italian crowd will be cheering hard for Jannik Sinner.
To the 2025 ATP Finals draw preview and analysis.
Connors Group
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur: H2H 4-0 Alcaraz. The good news for de Minaur? He took a set off Carlitos in the Rotterdam final this year, which is an indoor hard court event. Now for the bad news. Demon’s weapon is his foot speed, and Alcaraz might be the one player on tour who is faster. In addition, Alcaraz has a far superior serve. Carlitos seems to feast on de Minaur’s flat ground strokes where others are annoyed by them. While Alcaraz sometimes struggles with the ever-changing subtleties of various indoor hard court surfaces, he arrived in Turin early to get his reps. He has shortened up the backswing on his forehand to crisp up accordingly. Prediction: Alcaraz in 2.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz: H2H 4-1 Alcaraz. Yes, that 2025 Laver Cup victory for Taylor counts. Notably, court conditions at that indoor event were slow and “dead” according to Fritz, who said he had to drastically alter his strategy against Alcaraz. He approached the net early attempting to keep Carlitos from “floating the ball” (his words) and extending the points. It worked like a charm, but Taylor abandoned the strategy in his later contest against Alcaraz in Tokyo, where he lost in straight sets. If Fritz has a serving day that is in another stratosphere, and the courts are indeed fast, that might make it a closer contest. Outside of that, without the added dimensions of backhand down the line or net rushing, Alcaraz will feast. Prediction: Alcaraz in 3.
Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaur: H2H tied 5-5. This is the sweet spot of the ATP Finals draw preview and analysis. An ultimate contrast in playing styles, these dudes have played on every possible type of hard court in just about every hard court condition. 9 of their 10 meetings have been on hard, so they know this drill well. If you explore the head-to-head, it’s a rivalry of streaks, with each player making a chess move to grab momentum against the other. Fritz has won the last two, but they have not met in 2025. De Minaur is actually a different player than he was a year ago. His tactical acumen and improved serve complement his speed beautifully. If Alex can keep the ball low to the tall American and frustrate him with returns he really has no business making, Taylor might get flummoxed and start to overthink. Prediction: De Minaur in 3.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti: H2H 6-1 Alcaraz. If this seems like a pair of Europeans who would mainly play on clay, there’s a reason. 5 of their 7 meetings have been on the dirt, and they’ve never met indoors. I could talk about the matchup and how faster courts can rush Musetti’s one-handed backhand. I could tell you that the Italian’s record indoors this year is below .500, as is his overall record on hard court. But the real reason Musetti probably isn’t long for this ATP Finals is fatigue. He busted just to make it here by playing a 250 in Athens, which only just wrapped Saturday. Prediction: Alcaraz in 2.
Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti: H2H 3-2 Musetti. One of the big reasons this is a problematic matchup for Fritz revolves around backhand-to-backhand exchanges. That particular area of the American’s game is his comfort zone. An error rarely comes out of that for Taylor. The problem is that Musetti mixes extremely well on that wing by coming over the ball and slicing. It’s harder for Taylor to find his rhythm. Musetti has a weaker serve, and Fritz doesn’t always take advantage. Conversely, Musetti is an exceptional returner which can take the edge of the Fritz serve. That said, this is one where court speed factors large. Fritz in 3.
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti: H2H 3-1 Musetti. Lorenzo owns this head to head mainly because of clay, which is Demon’s worst surface. Indoors on hard court, I see de Minaur’s superior anticipation skills as a problem for the Italian. Alex’s calm demeanor will dull the knife of the Italian crowd. Again, Musetti is fatigued, Alex knows it and will run him. De Minaur in 2.
2025 ATP Draw Preview and Analysis: Borg Group
Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton: H2H 7-1 Sinner. Shelton’s only win came all the way back in 2023 at their first meeting in Shanghai. Notably, 7 of their 8 matches have contained a tiebreak set. That tells me Jannik finds Ben’s lefty serve more of a challenge. If Shelton can buckle down in the breaker with discipline and a focus on putting returns in play, stealing a set off Jannik is possible. The court speed doesn’t help Shelton though. Nor do the indoor conditions where fitness and cramping just isn’t an issue for Sinner. While we might see Ben put the occasional finger to the ear at the Italian crowd after a flashy point, that will likely be the exception. Prediction: Sinner in 2.
Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: H2H 5-4 Sinner. Sometimes referred to as the bot rivalry, it’s been one-way traffic for the Italian for the past 2 years. I’d like to see both players experiment with some finesse and net play in this contest, especially since Sinner has asserted his desire to work on variety. That said, Sinner probably knows exactly where to extract errors or set up his finishing shot: By going to the German’s forehand. Why complicate matters with millions on the line? Expect breakers if Zverev is healthy and serving well, but the recent Sinner beatdown of Sascha in the Paris Masters indicates Zverev isn’t 100 percent. Prediction: Sinner in 2.
Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton: H2H 4-0 Zverev. This has been an ugly matchup for Shelton. Why? Mostly very poor returning by Ben against the Zverev serve, both first and second. It’s understandable to have a poor returning day against Alex’s first serve. Almost everyone does. But Shelton’s rock bottom second serve return points won reveal either a lack of discipline in keeping the return in play or a lack of good scouting to understand the German’s tendencies. On the other side, Zverev’s height allows him to not be bothered by Ben’s heavy kick serve. In fact, if it’s to the backhand wing, he loves it. His return numbers are stellar against the American. In addition, Shelton has not yet been able to take advantage of Zverev’s far back return positions with either serve and volley or drop shots. Now’s the time to play around with those tactics. I will say I see an opportunity here for Ben. Prediction: Zverev in 3.
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner: H2H 3-1 Sinner. A walkover at Madrid 2024 doesn’t count for Felix, sorry. These two just meet in the finals of the Paris Masters, and it was a close, high-quality 2-set match. Likewise, their meeting at this year’s US Open showed flashes that FAA can hang with the Italian. Auger Aliassime is much improved in all aspects of his game this year. As a returner, he gets a racquet on serves that most do not, making the points played on first serves more meaningful. Since FAA plays so well indoors, I like him to take a set off the 4-time Grand Slam Champ. Prediction: Sinner in 3.
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Ben Shelton: H2H 1-0 Auger Aliassime. What an unknown! Their only meeting was on clay in 2024. Both are different players at this moment than they were then. Ranking high on athleticism and hops, FAA and Ben are emerging as all-court threats. Auger Aliassime is a far superior returner at this point. That’s something Ben might see and draw inspiration from. Prediction: FAA in 3.
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alexander Zverev: H2H 6-3 Zverev. To win this match, FAA will need to serve and volley and use the drop shot. Zverev is definitely tired from the long season and dealing with numerous small injuries. It will take tactical discipline to crack the code. FAA beat Zverev at this year’s US Open by going for a bit more on his first serve and saving 7/9 break points. It was some very heady serving. Prediction: FAA in 3.
Players to watch:
Connors Group: Alcaraz, de Minaur
Borg Group: Sinner, Auger Aliassime
F: Sinner
A final note about this year’s ATP Finals Draw Preview and Analysis. Next year we won’t have the problem of late-decided matchups because the tour has chosen to cut off the Race To Turin immediately after the Paris Masters. This is a welcome change. It allows fans to build excitement over anticipated matchups much earlier.
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